Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2af7d1c9f72c19bc0e2052a90861e81795345065ac66299ad34b75b2ed8062ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,042
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,694
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,042 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 330.24$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.3 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 7c | 276.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 20c | 267.21$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.29 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 55c | 195.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.77 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 67c | 189.16$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.53 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18ec…f311backed No | 60c | 166.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 42.5%17 W · 23 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 62c | 160.41$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.45 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 158.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.08 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 78c | 129.4$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.37 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 66c | 126.43$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 26c | 122.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.89 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed Yes | 35c | 119.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.61 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed No | 65c | 114.56$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked No | 41c | 108.91$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 749 | 26.7%200 W · 549 L | -20.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 24c | 105$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed Yes | 37c | 101.49$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.09 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 38c | 100.74$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.39 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x108a…8159backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76 | 587 | 32.9%193 W · 394 L | +34.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x7e86…4c0fbacked Yes | 19c | 98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.38 | 111 | 27%30 W · 81 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 73c | 96.07$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.99 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb88…0e4cbacked Yes | 47c | 84.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.42 | 32 | 28.1%9 W · 23 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 14c | 81.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.05 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbae0…6278backed Yes | 20c | 80$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 22c | 73.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.38 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4580…4357backed Yes | 15c | 72.71$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 65 | 20%13 W · 52 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 32c | 62.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.58 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 77c | 61.19$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 35c | 59.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…77e8backed Yes | 35c | 51.11$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 126 | 25.4%32 W · 94 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 76c | 51.01$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.91 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 62c | 50.53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.57 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c64…5485backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed Yes | 43c | 49$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.93 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 28c | 47.97$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.56 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 53c | 44.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa23b…b787backed Yes | 41c | 42.98$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 73 | 50.7%37 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 58c | 40.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 36c | 40.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 40c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 75c | 39.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 38.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec6…b459backed Yes | 48c | 36.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.94 | 381 | 46.5%177 W · 204 L | +19.8wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2753…e28abacked Yes | 55c | 36.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.1 | 420 | 61.2%257 W · 163 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 59c | 32$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f6…0e74backed No | 62c | 31.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 198 | 61.1%121 W · 77 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 65c | 30.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.96 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 64c | 30.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e1…4995backed No | 54c | 29.51$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 63 | 46%29 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 75c | 28.21$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…123abacked Yes | 37c | 27.78$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +6.8wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed Yes | 40c | 26.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.99 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 65c | 26.61$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.22 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 71c | 25.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.1 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 75c | 24.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x501c…4d6dbacked Yes | 66c | 22.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 98 | 68.4%67 W · 31 L | +11.2wins | +0.11per pick | 57cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x17ea…7838backed Yes | 59c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +8.1wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x14ad…69f5backed No | 61c | 21.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.97 | 267 | 44.2%118 W · 149 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8130…5a50backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0ae…4a1ebacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.55 | 58 | 53.4%31 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 67c | 17.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf7…1fe2backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 70cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 73c | 14.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8845…360ebacked No | 79c | 13.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.38 | 169 | 35.5%60 W · 109 L | -34.5wins | -0.20per pick | 56cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 32°C on August 19?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 30°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 31°C on August 19?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 33°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.