Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x701ca2103b52ff7361b948a625a63629d7dcb9e60229432bc02f2f222d8306bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Team Lynx, Nemiga Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,657
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,076
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,657 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4925…4f82backed Nemiga Gaming | 19c | 3,504$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.43 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Lynx | 75c | 1,477$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.64 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 70c | 1,449$1,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.09 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a11…eb9dbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 1,242$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.53 | 169 | 45%76 W · 93 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 1,026$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.24 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x31a4…7afcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 28c | 943.57$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.2 | 953 | 42.2%402 W · 551 L | -20.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 888.93$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.79 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 721.53$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb3…76a9backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 720.77$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.89 | 517 | 51.3%265 W · 252 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Lynx | 76c | 659.65$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.35 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Team Lynx | 60c | 648.5$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.05 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Nemiga Gaming | 30c | 628.68$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.8 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Nemiga Gaming | 21c | 420.89$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.75 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f3d…cfffbacked Team Lynx | 77c | 400$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 367 | 59.1%217 W · 150 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c09…8a0bbacked Team Lynx | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ee3…7c36backed Team Lynx | 69c | 399.57$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.9 | 241 | 31.5%76 W · 165 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Team Lynx | 68c | 393.17$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa042…5539backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 386.97$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.91 | 174 | 54%94 W · 80 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82ef…840bbacked Team Lynx | 67c | 377.24$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.34 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f0…26edbacked Team Lynx | 79c | 375.38$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.18 | 338 | 67.8%229 W · 109 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 331.67$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.77 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x315f…85c6backed Team Lynx | 75c | 316.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.52 | 293 | 47.4%139 W · 154 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Lynx | 61c | 300$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117 | 450 | 46.7%210 W · 240 L | -11.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76d4…5f94backed Nemiga Gaming | 20c | 300$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 213.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.32 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8705…edbabacked Team Lynx | 74c | 203.94$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.8 | 430 | 49.1%211 W · 219 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fc7…62b9backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 200$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 654 | 41.9%274 W · 380 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f03…77dcbacked Nemiga Gaming | 44c | 199.82$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 292 | 40.4%118 W · 174 L | +8.4wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Nemiga Gaming | 27c | 173.86$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.94 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8027…cf81backed Nemiga Gaming | 38c | 173.33$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.86 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x968a…3841backed Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 163.27$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.23 | 209 | 39.2%82 W · 127 L | -10.8wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Team Lynx | 56c | 137.45$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.48 | 138 | 50%69 W · 69 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Nemiga Gaming | 36c | 134.4$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.07 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x064f…7a75backed Nemiga Gaming | 12c | 124.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Lynx | 54c | 114.78$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.8 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…dc17backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 111.33$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.32 | 73 | 76.7%56 W · 17 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3892…4093backed Nemiga Gaming | 46c | 111.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.09 | 149 | 55.7%83 W · 66 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Nemiga Gaming | 24c | 103.39$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed Team Lynx | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd08…2c93backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 167 | 52.7%88 W · 79 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Team Lynx | 77c | 99.59$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12bc…bf2fbacked Nemiga Gaming | 26c | 75.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 178 | 53.4%95 W · 83 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973a…52eabacked Nemiga Gaming | 17c | 67.07$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 52 | 46.2%24 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1be…6471backed Team Lynx | 60c | 64.89$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.84 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…fc1abacked Team Lynx | 68c | 55.86$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 54.21$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.23 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Nemiga Gaming | 28c | 53.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Team Lynx | 56c | 52.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 109 | 61.5%67 W · 42 L | +8.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…d080backed Nemiga Gaming | 31c | 50.03$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 101 | 52.5%53 W · 48 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Team Lynx | 71c | 48.27$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.81 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf38c…d9f2backed Team Lynx | 61c | 48.03$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 463 | 54.6%253 W · 210 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Team Lynx | 71c | 39.3$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 61 | 67.2%41 W · 20 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9332…a3dbbacked Nemiga Gaming | 39c | 37.1$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 760 | 48.6%369 W · 391 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Nemiga Gaming | 32c | 32.97$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed Team Lynx | 71c | 30.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.76 | 254 | 57.9%147 W · 107 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb5…a518backed Nemiga Gaming | 40c | 30.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd2…648cbacked Team Lynx | 63c | 29.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.91 | 97 | 40.2%39 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x234b…348ebacked Team Lynx | 68c | 29.34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Nemiga Gaming | 35c | 28.83$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 19.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.17 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League PlayoffsTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Team Lynx vs Nemiga Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Game Handicap: LYNX (-1.5) vs Nemiga Gaming (+1.5)Team Lynx won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.