Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x706455b6f2edaa254a7d755deeeabb8eeb7354170aa7fde76014c3c874d379a2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Fulham FCof Aston Villa FC, Fulham FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,784
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,784 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Aston Villa FC | 13c | 3,000$380 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380 | 76 | 36.8%28 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42a6…cb72backed Aston Villa FC | 18c | 1,331$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.6 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…87efbacked Aston Villa FC | 19c | 1,252$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.85 | 62 | 29%18 W · 44 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Aston Villa FC | 19c | 999.98$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8393…f0aebacked Aston Villa FC | 17c | 885.97$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.61 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd404…b4ebbacked Aston Villa FC | 19c | 762.55$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.78 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4db9…14f5backed Aston Villa FC | 18c | 660.28$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.85 | 48 | 35.4%17 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Aston Villa FC | 18c | 528.22$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.08 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc61d…3933backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 279.47$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.51 | 121 | 39.7%48 W · 73 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd03…df4abacked Aston Villa FC | 18c | 237.7$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 114 | 33.3%38 W · 76 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 177.05$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 176.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8142…f311backed Aston Villa FC | 19c | 167.62$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.85 | 70 | 40%28 W · 42 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7841…7273backed Aston Villa FC | 18c | 133.11$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9f…905bbacked Aston Villa FC | 16c | 130.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.91 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Aston Villa FC | 16c | 105.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.05 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Aston Villa FC | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcf45…c794backed Aston Villa FC | 16c | 99.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Aston Villa FC | 17c | 92.16$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 118 | 58.5%69 W · 49 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Aston Villa FC | 17c | 75.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.76 | 189 | 61.9%117 W · 72 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dbe…b1b1backed Aston Villa FC | 20c | 71.4$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0fb…ec4fbacked Aston Villa FC | 17c | 61.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.45 | 87 | 31%27 W · 60 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)this page
- Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Fulham FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.