Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7076ee470bc40d67dbb5bfb1435c5928cef604f9ebbcaa67a9b287fd96404c02
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,366
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,834
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,366 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc426…ac6ebacked No | 52c | 327.86$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.67 | 146 | 46.6%68 W · 78 L | -7.9wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 21c | 324.27$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.64 | 769 | 24.3%187 W · 582 L | -16.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 273.75$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 35c | 215.73$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbed7…a0fabacked Yes | 48c | 210$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.2 | 125 | 40%50 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 47c | 160.17$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 157.19$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.34 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…e2bdbacked Yes | 60c | 150.82$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.93 | 144 | 52.8%76 W · 68 L | +20.6wins | +0.14per pick | 38cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 43c | 143.12$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.57 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 29c | 142.84$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.14 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…6450backed No | 10c | 116.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 141 | 19.1%27 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 21cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 42c | 112.39$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 52c | 104.19$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.71 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 43c | 103.39$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.83 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 35c | 83.06$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.85 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.65 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 35c | 62.77$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 2,302 | 26.9%620 W · 1,682 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 16c | 62.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 51c | 58.69$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 42c | 55.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 42c | 54$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 42c | 53$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.26 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c70…34c4backed No | 42c | 51.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 66c | 50.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 48.53$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…b884backed Yes | 71c | 40.83$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +47.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f7…932cbacked Yes | 48c | 35.38$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 48 | 14.6%7 W · 41 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa88f…1096backed No | 50c | 32$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d0f…81aabacked Yes | 72c | 31.64$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 270 | 79.3%214 W · 56 L | +52.5wins | +0.19per pick | 60cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 75c | 31$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe4…2a32backed Yes | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 69c | 28.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.82 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 24.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8579…992dbacked No | 53c | 21.95$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e7f…7980backed No | 58c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc756…0ec3backed Yes | 69c | 16.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 132 | 66.7%88 W · 44 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on June 12?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 12?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C or higher on June 12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.