Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x709cfa939d80769a338f4fc8212ba63c9a35a846a1edbc9e49bf42127d9a5050
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,435
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,435 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3b2f…5e1dbacked Yes | 17c | 1,504$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 13c | 867.24$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.79 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 17c | 528.12$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.25 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 5c | 452.62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.77 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 316.16$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 10c | 291.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.06 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb6…0f8fbacked Yes | 43c | 282.57$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.95 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 64cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 8c | 249.79$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.81 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1f44…ace3backed No | 79c | 237.83$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.57 | 66 | 60.6%40 W · 26 L | +11.9wins | +0.18per pick | 43cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 12c | 213.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.09 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf40…38b8backed No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.51 | 583 | 49.4%288 W · 295 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 34c | 194.32$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 27c | 175$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.85 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3183…d6fbbacked Yes | 55c | 173.74$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 38cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f7…8bf1backed No | 64c | 156.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.57 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 37c | 146$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dbb…49a2backed Yes | 70c | 142.74$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 18c | 129.39$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 57c | 123.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.32 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ea…d2ddbacked Yes | 39c | 112.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 103.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.97 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f7d…2c4bbacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae31…375fbacked No | 38c | 91.93$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 13c | 90$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 48c | 87.21$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 85.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.48 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 53c | 81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.28 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea6b…5ac2backed Yes | 62c | 80.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 534 | 37.3%199 W · 335 L | -29.9wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01ce…27a2backed Yes | 20c | 74.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 553 | 36.7%203 W · 350 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 29c | 60.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed No | 44c | 53.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xec6d…804bbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb576…525bbacked Yes | 67c | 49.37$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.54per pick | 54cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…1fcebacked Yes | 62c | 48.26$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 22c | 48.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 67c | 45.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 38c | 42.14$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.13 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x288a…19f4backed No | 46c | 39.13$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.13 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcde2…ae43backed No | 74c | 36.7$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 41c | 34.92$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf49e…9894backed No | 40c | 32.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc631…59a6backed Yes | 63c | 31.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -64.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f10…0060backed Yes | 66c | 30.36$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf547…9ebbbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31c6…f2dcbacked Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 28cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 49c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4264…1706backed Yes | 62c | 27.65$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 408 | 71.8%293 W · 115 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed No | 50c | 25.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 62c | 24.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a15…76afbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -10.2wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2411…6ea7backed Yes | 65c | 22.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…0634backed Yes | 65c | 22.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 75 | 36%27 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7515…0f90backed No | 48c | 21.94$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 159 | 54.7%87 W · 72 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…8aeabacked Yes | 50c | 21.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2af7…570dbacked Yes | 64c | 16.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a71…78c9backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 62cpaid | -62.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 179 | 78.8%141 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 78cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 26?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.