Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 26?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a78f1823e1495be05042b2c504492cd2eb12c59d02e598ec866afe7c8e54d89
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $56,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,052
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fea…5685backed Yes | 72c | 4,185$3,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,168.13 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x39d8…894bbacked No | 1c | 3,153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed No | 5c | 2,961$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.48 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 8c | 1,300$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.92 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x662e…4b20backed Yes | 17c | 1,042$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.85 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | +16.4wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x19e1…976dbacked No | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 191 | 1%2 W · 189 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe026…dcf7backed Yes | 59c | 846.69$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Yes | 10c | 841.36$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$754.43 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes | 67c | 800$537 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.76 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 540.48$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$387.54 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 519.63$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.65 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x577e…7e31backed Yes | 4c | 518.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 24cpaid | +198.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes | 35c | 459.77$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299.59 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes | 14c | 410.57$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.61 | 339 | 29.5%100 W · 239 L | +12.9wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes | 70c | 400$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes | 3c | 399.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.96 | 600 | 4.2%25 W · 575 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed Yes | 77c | 396.07$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.54 | 185 | 50.3%93 W · 92 L | -5.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d57…63d8backed Yes | 28c | 386.08$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$277.98 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 30c | 344.05$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.53 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 68c | 327.39$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.94 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 64c | 267.52$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.88 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 50c | 254.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.01 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b2f…5e1dbacked No | 42c | 238.92$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab08…8825backed Yes | 58c | 233.1$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.65 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes | 5c | 218.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.1 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.11per pick | 25cpaid | +77.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes | 49c | 215.21$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.05 | 308 | 32.5%100 W · 208 L | +14.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6260…6b21backed No | 67c | 209.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 45 | 11.1%5 W · 40 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes | 6c | 184.25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.71 | 183 | 16.4%30 W · 153 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf49e…9894backed Yes | 70c | 176.51$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.55 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 34c | 175$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.71 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 172.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.76 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 19c | 169.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.06 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x192a…b0a6backed Yes | 8c | 168.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.13 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 13c | 156.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.31 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…acdfbacked Yes | 12c | 130.28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.28 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | +44.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 41c | 130.18$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.18 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes | 12c | 130$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 31 | 25.8%8 W · 23 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 28c | 124.91$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.95 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 74c | 100.82$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.86 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed Yes | 33c | 96.04$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.58 | 318 | 68.6%218 W · 100 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad50…3122backed Yes | 61c | 87.32$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 474 | 23.6%112 W · 362 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3735…5a5bbacked No | 59c | 75.29$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.42 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -11.3wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -36%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes | 67c | 74.8$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.81 | 608 | 51.2%311 W · 297 L | -24.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes | 54c | 72.68$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.54 | 49 | 46.9%23 W · 26 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37eb…8aeabacked Yes | 62c | 72.54$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.77 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +40.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 29c | 68.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c72…3beebacked Yes | 18c | 60.57$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.41 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x467a…e448backed Yes | 34c | 59.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcde2…ae43backed Yes | 74c | 55$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 65c | 53.92$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.04 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf585…aae1backed Yes | 57c | 52.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.29 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x097e…4fe5backed No | 33c | 49.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.34 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +37%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f0…b3cabacked No | 21c | 47.85$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | +4.5wins | +0.22per pick | 18cpaid | +99.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc921…d6f3backed No | 29c | 46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 153 | 39.9%61 W · 92 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes | 66c | 45.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.55 | 213 | 33.8%72 W · 141 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed Yes | 57c | 44.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.02 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea6…b8a5backed Yes | 59c | 43.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed Yes | 27c | 39.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.96 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…bc24backed No | 50c | 39.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -77.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 68c | 39.77$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes | 69c | 37.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 174 | 60.3%105 W · 69 L | +6.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd110…fafdbacked No | 67c | 37$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 64c | 36.8$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes | 72c | 35.44$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +5.2wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef81…6d75backed Yes | 55c | 35.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.85 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +33.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x61a0…0ae9backed Yes | 30c | 34.47$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -42%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 67c | 33.82$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5b28…d9c1backed No | 30c | 33.55$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1304…751ebacked No | 76c | 31$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.68 | 130 | 67.7%88 W · 42 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 64c | 27.78$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.78 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1b42…7cbebacked Yes | 37c | 26.69$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.69 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf967…1adfbacked Yes | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 312 | 62.5%195 W · 117 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d51…10babacked No | 67c | 23.7$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.88 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a28…0e02backed No | 46c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.61 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x55d5…7b83backed Yes | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfc…bebfbacked Yes | 75c | 19.26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -4.1wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa36b…1d89backed No | 64c | 18.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 555 | 38.4%213 W · 342 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 68c | 17.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2733…be07backed No | 71c | 17.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd240…0d90backed No | 67c | 16.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.67per pick | 67cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 72c | 13.89$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 26?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on March 26?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on March 26?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.