TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C or higher on March 26?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$56,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,052

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1fea…5685backed Yes72c4,185$3,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.133852.6%20 W · 18 L+3.4wins+0.09per pick44cpaid+15.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x39d8…894bbacked No1c3,153$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick25cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed No5c2,961$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.481,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae22…8794backed Yes8c1,300$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,189.9246232.9%152 W · 310 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x662e…4b20backed Yes17c1,042$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.8512055%66 W · 54 L+16.4wins+0.14per pick41cpaid+48.3%equal weight63+0.11 edge/pick
0x19e1…976dbacked No1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101911%2 W · 189 L+0.1wins0.00per pick1cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe026…dcf7backed Yes59c846.69$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$346.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes10c841.36$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$754.4334319.5%67 W · 276 L+22.4wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+19%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x900e…f6bfbacked Yes67c800$537 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.767682.9%63 W · 13 L+27.3wins+0.36per pick47cpaid+108.5%equal weight80+0.27 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No72c540.48$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.544,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes65c519.63$340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.656,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x577e…7e31backed Yes4c518.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$498.531136.4%4 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick24cpaid+198.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No33c500$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1652,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8aa…48ccbacked Yes35c459.77$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$299.599122%20 W · 71 L+0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid-20%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc60b…d9f7backed Yes14c410.57$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.6133929.5%100 W · 239 L+12.9wins+0.04per pick26cpaid+23.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x09c3…5bf0backed Yes70c400$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1201764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbb7…6f27backed Yes3c399.96$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$387.966004.2%25 W · 575 L+0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8165…97b8backed Yes77c396.07$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.5418550.3%93 W · 92 L-5.8wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d57…63d8backed Yes28c386.08$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.981729.4%5 W · 12 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes30c344.05$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.5377428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x391d…def1backed Yes68c327.39$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.9446824.4%114 W · 354 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No64c267.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.881,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1361…f12bbacked Yes50c254.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.011,92433.8%651 W · 1,273 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b2f…5e1dbacked No42c238.92$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.08per pick22cpaid+36.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xab08…8825backed Yes58c233.1$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.651546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-33.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x25d8…a71fbacked Yes5c218.39$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.13336.4%12 W · 21 L+3.6wins+0.11per pick25cpaid+77.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x10d5…33fdbacked Yes49c215.21$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.0530832.5%100 W · 208 L+14.7wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+1.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6260…6b21backed No67c209.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.394511.1%5 W · 40 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick18cpaid-64.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes6c184.25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.7118316.4%30 W · 153 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-14.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf49e…9894backed Yes70c176.51$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+96.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5a1…3840backed Yes34c175$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.711,15327.1%312 W · 841 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-0.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes17c172.13$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.767,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed Yes19c169.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.061,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x192a…b0a6backed Yes8c168.91$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.1320150.7%102 W · 99 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes13c156.12$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.311,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2754…acdfbacked Yes12c130.28$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.281729.4%5 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick23cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No41c130.18$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.181,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28d0…f0b2backed Yes12c130$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1153125.8%8 W · 23 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick25cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No28c124.91$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.9536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xfd8e…aea4backed No74c100.82$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.862,26879.5%1,803 W · 465 L+98.4wins+0.04per pick75cpaid+5.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x84cb…4b77backed Yes33c96.04$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.5831868.6%218 W · 100 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick67cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad50…3122backed Yes61c87.32$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.4547423.6%112 W · 362 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-10.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x3735…5a5bbacked No59c75.29$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4215136.4%55 W · 96 L-11.3wins-0.08per pick44cpaid-36%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbdf6…c61bbacked Yes67c74.8$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.8160851.2%311 W · 297 L-24.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfe1e…7ee3backed Yes54c72.68$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.544946.9%23 W · 26 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x37eb…8aeabacked Yes62c72.54$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.77580%4 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+40.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe64d…5e09backed No29c68.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2013315%20 W · 113 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick16cpaid+15.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c72…3beebacked Yes18c60.57$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.412152.4%11 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x467a…e448backed Yes34c59.29$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.193650%18 W · 18 L+5.6wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+52.7%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcde2…ae43backed Yes74c55$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-9.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2754…1668backed Yes65c53.92$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.041,01860.2%613 W · 405 L+13.5wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf585…aae1backed Yes57c52.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.291931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick39cpaid-11.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x097e…4fe5backed No33c49.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.34366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+37%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3f0…b3cabacked No21c47.85$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.052040%8 W · 12 L+4.5wins+0.22per pick18cpaid+99.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc921…d6f3backed No29c46$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.4515339.9%61 W · 92 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-18.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09c5…9e8abacked Yes66c45.55$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.5521333.8%72 W · 141 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-12.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x173a…eb85backed Yes57c44.02$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.025547.3%26 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ea6…b8a5backed Yes59c43.45$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+69.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90c5…fb31backed Yes27c39.94$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.9616944.4%75 W · 94 L+18.5wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+32.5%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x8e24…bc24backed No50c39.81$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-77.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No68c39.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7a1b…1c78backed Yes69c37.99$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.9717460.3%105 W · 69 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd110…fafdbacked No67c37$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.792642.3%11 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-32.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc6b2…8e12backed No64c36.8$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.5547442.4%201 W · 273 L-9.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc9f0…46bebacked Yes72c35.44$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.925453.7%29 W · 25 L+5.2wins+0.10per pick44cpaid+44.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xef81…6d75backed Yes55c35.1$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.851758.8%10 W · 7 L+2.1wins+0.12per pick47cpaid+33.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x61a0…0ae9backed Yes30c34.47$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.11931.6%6 W · 13 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-42%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc135…a01abacked Yes67c33.82$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.0861659.3%365 W · 251 L+68.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5b28…d9c1backed No30c33.55$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.026033.3%20 W · 40 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1304…751ebacked No76c31$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.6813067.7%88 W · 42 L+8.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No64c27.78$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.789250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x1b42…7cbebacked Yes37c26.69$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.69728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.2wins-0.17per pick46cpaid-43%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf967…1adfbacked Yes70c24$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.231262.5%195 W · 117 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d51…10babacked No67c23.7$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.881442.9%6 W · 8 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick57cpaid-34.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a28…0e02backed No46c23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.614452.3%23 W · 21 L-2.7wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55d5…7b83backed Yes54c19.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.24621.7%10 W · 36 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdfc…bebfbacked Yes75c19.26$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.92846.4%13 W · 15 L-4.1wins-0.15per pick61cpaid-23.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa36b…1d89backed No64c18.94$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1255538.4%213 W · 342 L-14.1wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-6.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x989a…b73fbacked Yes68c17.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.6118164.1%116 W · 65 L+29.3wins+0.16per pick48cpaid+37%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x2733…be07backed No71c17.26$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.29966.7%6 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd240…0d90backed No67c16.97$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.3710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.67per pick67cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x286d…825abacked No72c13.89$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1062555.2%345 W · 280 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-8.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.