MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Athletics
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70a7e077ec1fa4f5834c5b25fbfbd5800cf6141a744fc6b08a30ac8a5d7a1640
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,582
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,582 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e7…b14fbacked San Diego Padres | 48c | 1,636$788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.6 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a07…1ab7backed Athletics | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4d…168cbacked Athletics | 59c | 1,000$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.36 | 832 | 48%399 W · 433 L | +20.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed San Diego Padres | 42c | 595$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$345.1 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked Athletics | 39c | 274.28$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.97 | 3,291 | 46.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L | +20.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Athletics | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 2,261 | 45.4%1,026 W · 1,235 L | +57.4wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Athletics | 19c | 152.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 13cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebff…70e5backed San Diego Padres | 70c | 132.37$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.21 | 351 | 37%130 W · 221 L | -17.7wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x92aa…0341backed Athletics | 71c | 118.52$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.04 | 62 | 67.7%42 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed San Diego Padres | 71c | 114.77$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.24 | 230 | 36.1%83 W · 147 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9865…f6afbacked San Diego Padres | 41c | 107.77$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.27 | 310 | 32.9%102 W · 208 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 106.73$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.83 | 465 | 47.1%219 W · 246 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 92.55$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.88 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8dd8…9a1cbacked San Diego Padres | 63c | 78.94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.98 | 477 | 43%205 W · 272 L | -12.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Athletics | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed San Diego Padres | 60c | 58.5$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f9…ad71backed Athletics | 25c | 47.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Athletics | 57c | 46.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 555 | 41.4%230 W · 325 L | -26.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2596…fd5abacked San Diego Padres | 47c | 44.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -47%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa559…6dbbbacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 43.8$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Athletics | 46c | 38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 86 | 44.2%38 W · 48 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked San Diego Padres | 34c | 30.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.12 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22be…e36ebacked San Diego Padres | 42c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +2.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked San Diego Padres | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.73 | 477 | 45.7%218 W · 259 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed San Diego Padres | 41c | 28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 1,466 | 44.1%647 W · 819 L | +44.0wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Athletics | 55c | 21.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.68 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.