Tennis · resolved market
ITF W35 Erwitte Women: Marie Vogt vs Polina Skliar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70ab867cb84226694b6dec7e833d3a68210ec2c882833f15304fe34dd763638d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marie Vogtof Marie Vogt, Polina Skliar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Polina Skliar | 32c | 1,029$326 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$326.1 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Polina Skliar | 67c | 982.81$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.48 | 8,241 | 45.5%3,746 W · 4,495 L | +166.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Polina Skliar | 80c | 857.38$686 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$685.9 | 3,711 | 45.3%1,680 W · 2,031 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Marie Vogt | 28c | 725.14$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.83 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Polina Skliar | 41c | 678.05$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5513…de2abacked Marie Vogt | 53c | 623.9$328 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.16 | 792 | 38.3%303 W · 489 L | -15.8wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8c…e040backed Marie Vogt | 53c | 420.22$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.42 | 654 | 37.5%245 W · 409 L | -33.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Marie Vogt | 56c | 375.74$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.79 | 1,314 | 39%512 W · 802 L | -23.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Marie Vogt | 77c | 370$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.1 | 340 | 52.1%177 W · 163 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…b506backed Marie Vogt | 59c | 300$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123 | 104 | 46.2%48 W · 56 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31d4…5c13backed Marie Vogt | 32c | 254.58$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.58 | 329 | 37.1%122 W · 207 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ed01backed Marie Vogt | 62c | 235.74$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.58 | 348 | 54.3%189 W · 159 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…2090backed Marie Vogt | 47c | 198$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.94 | 1,745 | 48.1%840 W · 905 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Polina Skliar | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…db27backed Polina Skliar | 40c | 125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 139 | 48.9%68 W · 71 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Polina Skliar | 42c | 114.29$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 1,091 | 60.2%657 W · 434 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Polina Skliar | 40c | 114.08$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.63 | 3,457 | 38.9%1,345 W · 2,112 L | -15.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2064…0ab1backed Marie Vogt | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 401 | 44.1%177 W · 224 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf98d…384ebacked Marie Vogt | 59c | 94.58$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.78 | 69 | 52.2%36 W · 33 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Polina Skliar | 61c | 94.45$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.34 | 436 | 52.1%227 W · 209 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Marie Vogt | 39c | 86.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.65 | 1,878 | 53.2%1,000 W · 878 L | +30.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Marie Vogt | 56c | 82.84$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 4,341 | 52.3%2,271 W · 2,070 L | +63.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Polina Skliar | 44c | 76.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.63 | 710 | 45.4%322 W · 388 L | -13.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x023d…23acbacked Marie Vogt | 68c | 65.14$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.72 | 618 | 55.8%345 W · 273 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Marie Vogt | 60c | 55.25$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.98 | 6,574 | 46.2%3,037 W · 3,537 L | -45.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc72…cd13backed Marie Vogt | 37c | 32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.26 | 978 | 52%509 W · 469 L | +7.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf12c…a6f7backed Polina Skliar | 45c | 26.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.13 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.5wins | -0.19per pick | 45cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…b1c7backed Polina Skliar | 42c | 25.1$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2391…8ba9backed Marie Vogt | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Polina Skliar | 80c | 17.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 425 | 46.4%197 W · 228 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Polina Skliar | 80c | 17.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.61 | 897 | 41.7%374 W · 523 L | -9.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Polina Skliar | 80c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 359 | 56.8%204 W · 155 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfeef…4b1fbacked Polina Skliar | 80c | 13.44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 254 | 50.8%129 W · 125 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -12%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.