Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b2cf39cbd3a9b5b1b38d22faadd40fb2b5ce166eba4bc4f24d8f4519411402
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,464
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,464 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 20c | 965.15$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 80c | 680.15$544 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.03 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 80c | 300.27$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.45 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd7c2…e1e0backed Yes | 22c | 196.86$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.31 | 172 | 51.7%89 W · 83 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 77c | 183.82$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed No | 78c | 181.98$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.37 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 177.63$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.33 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 77c | 157.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.36 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 21c | 141$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 18c | 140.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.7 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 16c | 137.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 78c | 135.32$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 16c | 128.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 24c | 125.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.73 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…362abacked Yes | 16c | 117$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.23 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 23c | 115.49$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.48 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4fb…32c8backed Yes | 23c | 115.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked No | 80c | 113.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.76 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 37c | 102.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.08 | 403 | 37.2%150 W · 253 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6046…3f9dbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 155 | 34.8%54 W · 101 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf216…4844backed Yes | 23c | 96.39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 272 | 46.3%126 W · 146 L | +13.9wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd37…9135backed Yes | 17c | 95.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.16 | 179 | 40.8%73 W · 106 L | +29.0wins | +0.16per pick | 25cpaid | +113.7%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked No | 79c | 89.29$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.75 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 25c | 88.01$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd71…1281backed Yes | 18c | 85.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 539 | 51.9%280 W · 259 L | +54.4wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc651…895bbacked Yes | 22c | 84.64$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf733…297dbacked Yes | 21c | 81.03$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.09 | 175 | 11.4%20 W · 155 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 30c | 66.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 32c | 61.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 19c | 60.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x169d…5a48backed Yes | 25c | 52.2$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 78c | 51.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed No | 79c | 50.87$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed Yes | 21c | 48.84$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 278 | 52.9%147 W · 131 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 76c | 43.98$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 30c | 39.3$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.04 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 70c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 74c | 23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b0a…65abbacked No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 338 | 76.6%259 W · 79 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 78cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 77c | 18.43$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 80c | 18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 75c | 15.64$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.84 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.