Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x832a7c44cbd9e563914fbbc041038a0ca7ac3a56cc658f33ed698f0ab627e6d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,169
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,222
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,169 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 39c | 571.77$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.42 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7735…4740backed Yes | 59c | 501.12$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.12 | 259 | 33.6%87 W · 172 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fb…c038backed Yes | 62c | 399.23$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.83 | 439 | 32.8%144 W · 295 L | +20.3wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 11c | 393.26$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 42c | 374.16$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.89 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 39c | 221.8$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.75 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 39c | 200$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.59 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 68c | 193.25$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.06 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 59c | 173.74$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.78 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 32c | 171.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.33 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x373e…b868backed No | 38c | 171.29$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.82 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 60c | 161.18$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 55c | 136.36$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.36 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 9c | 130.65$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad3…a50fbacked No | 15c | 128.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 39c | 123.38$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.31 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 68c | 109.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 22c | 105.82$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.93 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x11d0…69c9backed Yes | 74c | 100.02$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.04 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…26ffbacked Yes | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +4.7wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d3…e694backed Yes | 61c | 99.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 161 | 35.4%57 W · 104 L | -12.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 60c | 98$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 37c | 97.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 92.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 60c | 89.58$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 15c | 77.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 40c | 72.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7687…27a6backed No | 42c | 72.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.29 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 59cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 30c | 69.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 39c | 69.6$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.87 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 61c | 66.93$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c90…17efbacked No | 47c | 63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.61 | 288 | 47.2%136 W · 152 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 63c | 61.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.51 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…93b2backed No | 38c | 59.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2470…7ae6backed Yes | 67c | 55.7$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.26 | 70 | 58.6%41 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x93cc…454ebacked No | 24c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 255 | 41.2%105 W · 150 L | +22.4wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 33c | 43.37$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.48 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…1a13backed Yes | 61c | 40.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 62 | 40.3%25 W · 37 L | -7.2wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 39c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 77c | 38.31$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 38c | 36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 74c | 35.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked No | 33c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 56c | 34.86$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.34 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb87e…acd3backed No | 38c | 33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -5.3wins | -0.44per pick | 53cpaid | -88.1%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 73c | 32.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83dd…1517backed No | 37c | 32.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 57%45 W · 34 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 38c | 30.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed No | 40c | 30.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 66c | 30.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78b6…bc74backed Yes | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddba…e638backed No | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.25 | 408 | 62.3%254 W · 154 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3317…c0fabacked Yes | 59c | 29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 28cpaid | +256.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 62c | 28$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbc…c072backed Yes | 76c | 25.42$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 635 | 38.4%244 W · 391 L | +12.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9314…db74backed Yes | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 260 | 25%65 W · 195 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2abe…6e2dbacked Yes | 70c | 24.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.38 | 101 | 66.3%67 W · 34 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c30…b668backed Yes | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1585…5839backed Yes | 63c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8189…a808backed Yes | 60c | 21.96$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.72 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 75c | 21.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.37 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea25…0447backed Yes | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 108 | 36.1%39 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ff3…aa8dbacked Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 68cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b27…ff88backed Yes | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 98 | 49%48 W · 50 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 62c | 19.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on August 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on August 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on August 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.