Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70b32adad75285101da9a0cb17d103fb17f0e7314cea69012bb64303b613a40b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,014
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,173
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,014 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 27c | 484.8$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.18 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cd7…b347backed No | 77c | 193.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.99 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe094…11cdbacked Yes | 32c | 190.59$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 66 | 13.6%9 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3822…e667backed Yes | 24c | 155.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 34 | 8.8%3 W · 31 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +56.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 24c | 127.02$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.49 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Yes | 21c | 125.47$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.65 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 16c | 122.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x888d…ff8fbacked Yes | 25c | 118.23$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 72c | 112.11$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.44 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 77c | 107.97$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.13 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 20c | 102.46$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 28c | 95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.97 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a17…d13ebacked Yes | 29c | 86.77$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.16 | 106 | 33%35 W · 71 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 22c | 79.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 74c | 79.49$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.71 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 76c | 78.7$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…c49ebacked No | 78c | 77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 1,110 | 65%722 W · 388 L | +38.1wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 66c | 75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 71.9$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 28c | 70.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 70.53$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5968…3fc4backed No | 74c | 69.93$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.89 | 421 | 60.6%255 W · 166 L | -25.0wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 27c | 69.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.71 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 79c | 68.53$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 23c | 67.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe57c…1d8fbacked Yes | 20c | 66.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 74c | 62.56$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.05 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 80c | 62.5$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 25c | 60.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4204…165abacked No | 74c | 58.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.46 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 25c | 54.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 79c | 53.95$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.33 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1440…7712backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 23c | 49.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 74c | 45.15$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 66c | 45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…4d7bbacked No | 78c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.05 | 183 | 68.9%126 W · 57 L | +25.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 43.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 27c | 42.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 70c | 39.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 76c | 37.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0415…9c0abacked No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 70c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26e1…4e79backed No | 79c | 32.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 76c | 30.54$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 75c | 26.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 76c | 26.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb338…7a24backed No | 77c | 25.87$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.87 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 71c | 25.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5469…c822backed No | 78c | 25.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xecc6…55bfbacked No | 79c | 20.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.25 | 83 | 85.5%71 W · 12 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53bc…be7cbacked No | 76c | 20.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 627 | 70.5%442 W · 185 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f4…d093backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 150 | 32%48 W · 102 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebf0…2330backed No | 79c | 19.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.27 | 410 | 51.7%212 W · 198 L | +24.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 75c | 15.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.98 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 78c | 14.15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.06 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 38°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.