Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa48de448de443e6647b3cd16f4c42d7b4cf5687012b28ec766ec6ad1e4cd19ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,017
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,174
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,017 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed No | 14c | 893.65$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.09 | 466 | 26%121 W · 345 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 27c | 597.7$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.69 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd50c…3360backed Yes | 76c | 427.72$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.57 | 281 | 42%118 W · 163 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8297…d600backed Yes | 78c | 317.05$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.41 | 134 | 48.5%65 W · 69 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 249.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x410f…57febacked No | 14c | 211.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.36 | 33 | 18.2%6 W · 27 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 44c | 132$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.94 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed Yes | 44c | 114.17$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 70c | 103.92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.68 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 50c | 103.3$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.25 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 61c | 96.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.09 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 49c | 95$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.87 | 1,054 | 34.9%368 W · 686 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc037…1814backed No | 33c | 92.22$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.59 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 31c | 83.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.86 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 51c | 79.98$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.19 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0415…9c0abacked No | 52c | 69.99$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.4wins | -0.29per pick | 42cpaid | -83.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7099…791bbacked No | 34c | 68.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.38 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 38c | 64.1$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa61c…4dd6backed No | 31c | 63$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa05…9907backed No | 68c | 60$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 65 | 67.7%44 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6394…485fbacked No | 43c | 58.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 44c | 56.47$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.59 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed No | 28c | 54.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 53c | 53.89$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 46c | 53.13$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 801 | 30.8%247 W · 554 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 51c | 51$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.99 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 28c | 50.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879e…e339backed No | 50c | 50.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 175 | 55.4%97 W · 78 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4385…5560backed No | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 61c | 50$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 125 | 44.8%56 W · 69 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1b…7eb7backed Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 87 | 25.3%22 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 54c | 49.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.99 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 39c | 48.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.07 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd165…b94cbacked Yes | 54c | 46.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 56c | 45.21$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 253 | 58.9%149 W · 104 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed No | 28c | 43.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 47c | 42.72$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.44 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed No | 26c | 42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.12 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 41.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0970…7889backed Yes | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.99 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 51c | 39.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 30c | 39.01$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 27c | 38.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba96…95a7backed Yes | 54c | 36.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 240 | 29.2%70 W · 170 L | -15.8wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked Yes | 58c | 34.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 50c | 34.7$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.29 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 46c | 30.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.01 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed Yes | 53c | 28.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 41c | 26.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 51c | 25.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.14 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaa2…15eabacked No | 47c | 25.63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 141 | 35.5%50 W · 91 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 51c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5469…c822backed No | 63c | 23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63ac…3fc9backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 83 | 66.3%55 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 75c | 18.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 6?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 34°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 35°C on June 6?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 38°C or higher on June 6?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.