Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 14?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70dc70983b07c5319b361936c04969030d46cc7ed2ca4051d368443d53b4f9dd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,621
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,542
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,621 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb666…8f47backed Yes | 26c | 340.86$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.03 | 45 | 35.6%16 W · 29 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 64c | 312.47$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.49 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 47c | 277.11$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.6 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd564…58d0backed Yes | 46c | 268.67$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.08 | 180 | 30.6%55 W · 125 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 53c | 257.58$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.87 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec11…172bbacked Yes | 50c | 192.45$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 62c | 153.24$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.5 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf25…4f10backed Yes | 36c | 140.18$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.46 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 30c | 110.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.85 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 27c | 102.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed65…6673backed Yes | 47c | 101.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.97 | 150 | 39.3%59 W · 91 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fab…775abacked Yes | 18c | 101.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 78 | 9%7 W · 71 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed No | 58c | 94.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.4 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 65c | 94.01$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5d8…88b4backed Yes | 36c | 93.6$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.7 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 82$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.52 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0fe…e62abacked No | 76c | 79.99$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 236 | 77.1%182 W · 54 L | +23.3wins | +0.10per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 39c | 74.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.46 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2807…27d5backed Yes | 65c | 74.31$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.25 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x556d…c115backed No | 67c | 72.84$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.05 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9315…16c9backed Yes | 51c | 70.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bba…f6b6backed Yes | 27c | 70.24$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.92 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…cd72backed No | 72c | 69.56$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.48 | 72 | 66.7%48 W · 24 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ed…8b4bbacked Yes | 35c | 67.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.36 | 112 | 23.2%26 W · 86 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb14…0da7backed Yes | 42c | 67.57$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 249 | 21.3%53 W · 196 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b8f…3b86backed Yes | 41c | 67.42$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 179 | 34.1%61 W · 118 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.47 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes | 32c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 602 | 36.5%220 W · 382 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 40c | 58.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013a…e374backed Yes | 35c | 55.52$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.43 | 84 | 32.1%27 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.99 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd835…59babacked Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 48.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 37c | 48.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 36c | 44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 44c | 42.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 521 | 55.3%288 W · 233 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 53c | 40.61$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1098…10a7backed Yes | 35c | 39.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 417 | 33.8%141 W · 276 L | -17.0wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 61c | 39.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10a9…75b0backed Yes | 36c | 39.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 68c | 35.27$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 35c | 34.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 70c | 33.61$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc931…7d46backed No | 70c | 33.2$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.81 | 141 | 58.2%82 W · 59 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 53c | 32.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 58c | 32.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.03 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 71c | 32.74$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 65c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd333…53f9backed Yes | 46c | 29.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 89 | 34.8%31 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 35c | 28.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 54c | 28.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.41 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed No | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3827…5455backed Yes | 47c | 23.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | +6.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +44.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 64c | 23.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.33 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 21.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ae3…3401backed Yes | 70c | 20.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.59 | 274 | 63.9%175 W · 99 L | -15.0wins | -0.05per pick | 69cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f33…713fbacked Yes | 49c | 20.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd322…6b01backed Yes | 63c | 18.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.93 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98dc…e3f0backed Yes | 68c | 18.15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a1e…9095backed No | 64c | 16.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 173 | 76.3%132 W · 41 L | +11.7wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 65c | 16.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02ba…21a7backed Yes | 73c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -55%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 14?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 14?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 14?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.