MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70df6fc8337fd2eed06b09cf88b26c260c290b49eb6081d52f10436d452c5c8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,118
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,485
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,118 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 65c | 1,324$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.15 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 43c | 1,306$562 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.82 | 2,375 | 47.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L | -13.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 35c | 1,195$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.54 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 57c | 1,176$665 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.48 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 67c | 413.66$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.65 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1aa…f1e5backed Over | 35c | 360.89$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.31 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 333.46$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.72 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 57c | 168.62$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c4b…839fbacked Under | 66c | 149.2$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Under | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Over | 34c | 106.69$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 46c | 99.43$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 57c | 95$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 36c | 72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa89…ccd2backed Under | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.97 | 191 | 54.5%104 W · 87 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 68$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.92 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1edb…a60bbacked Over | 35c | 65.57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 38 | 44.7%17 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Under | 56c | 60$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 373 | 57.4%214 W · 159 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Under | 66c | 58.82$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.1 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 53c | 39.43$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.53 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 31c | 37.09$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.64 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 59c | 37$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.17 | 1,728 | 50.4%871 W · 857 L | +57.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 41c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 36c | 34.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 35c | 30.65$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 40c | 28.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3f3…b543backed Under | 67c | 24.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.28per pick | 42cpaid | -78.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe498…72c3backed Under | 64c | 23.22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 57c | 20.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.