MLB · resolved market
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7d445dba9f0d8a03f6e438607b69b9c8f01c340bccfa150b13e501d703cd6b63
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,022
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,031
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,022 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6498…8910backed Over | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,200 | 517 | 56.5%292 W · 225 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 52c | 11,342$5,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,431.15 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 51c | 3,376$1,721 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.43 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 1,876$844 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,031.77 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 51c | 1,476$754 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$753.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 1,450$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$789.08 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 55c | 1,258$692 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$692.02 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 425.53$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.09 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcc…e8ccbacked Under | 59c | 401.33$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.33 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0204…0e31backed Over | 55c | 364.75$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 180 | 48.3%87 W · 93 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Over | 55c | 364.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 940 | 34.3%322 W · 618 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf009…43d0backed Over | 55c | 359.98$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.39 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 260$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e2d…5116backed Under | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.39 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 45c | 202.55$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.61 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c4…e6a5backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 42 | 59.5%25 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x199f…b36abacked Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -4.4wins | -0.16per pick | 57cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 54c | 185.43$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.79 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb79f…88e8backed Over | 55c | 181.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 53c | 180$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.1 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ce8…fc49backed Under | 45c | 166.67$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.67 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5012…4d3ebacked Under | 46c | 165.06$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.94 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -25%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 50c | 156.41$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29b0…3f3cbacked Over | 54c | 146.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 192 | 48.4%93 W · 99 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 49c | 134.78$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 46c | 128.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.74 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Under | 52c | 125$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 50c | 121.11$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.78 | 194 | 42.3%82 W · 112 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 46c | 99.97$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.99 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 50c | 96.41$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.36 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2573…2726backed Under | 63c | 95.24$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.24 | 230 | 51.7%119 W · 111 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Over | 54c | 90.74$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 53c | 88.38$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.84 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42ac…2096backed Over | 57c | 87.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x87b8…9c13backed Over | 36c | 80$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Over | 55c | 65.45$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 93 | 49.5%46 W · 47 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…5487backed Under | 54c | 64.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 153 | 49.7%76 W · 77 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33c9…5124backed Over | 54c | 64.48$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 412 | 49.5%204 W · 208 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…61fbbacked Under | 52c | 64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 558 | 47.7%266 W · 292 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 50c | 61.32$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.41 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Under | 55c | 48.22$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.7 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 53c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 499 | 42.9%214 W · 285 L | -31.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7479…e171backed Under | 46c | 46.6$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.16 | 169 | 47.3%80 W · 89 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 55c | 45.55$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a59…a57ebacked Under | 53c | 43.55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 677 | 42.2%286 W · 391 L | -36.7wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed Under | 46c | 42.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.1 | 225 | 54.7%123 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Over | 49c | 42.55$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 1,367 | 54.3%742 W · 625 L | +16.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Under | 42c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 241 | 52.7%127 W · 114 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Over | 44c | 34.81$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.23 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x844d…780bbacked Over | 42c | 33.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 54c | 32.89$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.76 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x473e…c0f6backed Over | 46c | 32.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf58…2bf4backed Under | 49c | 29.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 401 | 48.1%193 W · 208 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 136 | 41.9%57 W · 79 L | -8.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Under | 46c | 25.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9f…5b6fbacked Over | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Under | 48c | 24.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x82a5…674ebacked Over | 56c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 208 | 52.9%110 W · 98 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 57c | 21.16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x400d…0191backed Over | 56c | 20.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 56cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5this page
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis CardinalsSt. Louis Cardinals won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 6.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5Under won
- Los Angeles Dodgers vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5)St. Louis Cardinals won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-1.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
- Spread: St. Louis Cardinals (-2.5)Los Angeles Dodgers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.