South American Leagues · resolved market
Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70e9b242bf4f1f53e747af6daba11c47abf140ced08339b2b82dfb0ae4fb001e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,575
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,575 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Yes | 10c | 9,074$913 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$913.43 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 25c | 1,611$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.44 | 58 | 19%11 W · 47 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…54cbbacked No | 76c | 1,308$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.63 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 26c | 1,027$266 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.36 | 128 | 28.1%36 W · 92 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15d7…a861backed Yes | 20c | 919.26$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1624…bf63backed Yes | 2c | 752.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 211 | 32.7%69 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 9c | 583.12$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 3,749 | 38.2%1,431 W · 2,318 L | -33.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…6af2backed Yes | 24c | 400$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef88…29a3backed No | 76c | 390$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 46 | 76.1%35 W · 11 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…6749backed Yes | 27c | 360$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.55 | 174 | 36.2%63 W · 111 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5092…1fc1backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 70c | 317.15$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.7 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca7…ce3bbacked Yes | 17c | 262.09$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.73 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb456…1774backed Yes | 8c | 250$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 28c | 199.99$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 20c | 182.14$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 9c | 138.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 181 | 60.2%109 W · 72 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea7…1be7backed Yes | 30c | 111.23$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x079f…a9d1backed Yes | 25c | 111$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.08 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x974e…8703backed Yes | 11c | 98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Yes | 15c | 86.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 191 | 44.5%85 W · 106 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Yes | 26c | 83.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.09 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Yes | 27c | 75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 25c | 71.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 270 | 53%143 W · 127 L | +8.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x866a…de80backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 138 | 14.5%20 W · 118 L | -5.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 26c | 55.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 23c | 54.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 69c | 43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06c4…9983backed Yes | 24c | 41.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 948 | 48.1%456 W · 492 L | -18.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eb9…af3cbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b35…768ebacked No | 72c | 29.02$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.03 | 86 | 55.8%48 W · 38 L | +2.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 74c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.22 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CA Vélez Sarsfield win on 2026-03-10?this page
- Will CA Tigre vs. CA Vélez Sarsfield end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Tigre win on 2026-03-10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.