Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Maria vs Ostapenko
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70ea09382bc6cf6529488cae0f03c7bb6b9640b8515c774ffa2225eef7e010b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Mariaof Maria, Ostapenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,612
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,099
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,612 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9ff6…348fbacked Maria | 44c | 1,406$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.53 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.31per pick | 42cpaid | +77.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbd31…abc0backed Ostapenko | 56c | 564.95$316 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$316.37 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…527abacked Maria | 73c | 471$344 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.71 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 17cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Maria | 57c | 441.64$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.43 | 8,726 | 36.2%3,161 W · 5,565 L | -187.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Ostapenko | 52c | 299.13$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.55 | 743 | 43.7%325 W · 418 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Ostapenko | 54c | 237.44$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.22 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1c…8408backed Ostapenko | 56c | 221.43$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 190 | 48.4%92 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Ostapenko | 6c | 218.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.32 | 2,331 | 7.9%183 W · 2,148 L | -56.9wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -60.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8492…f17cbacked Maria | 48c | 165.76$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.45 | 630 | 52.7%332 W · 298 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Ostapenko | 27c | 157.69$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 9,231 | 44.3%4,088 W · 5,143 L | -241.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26fb…67b8backed Maria | 46c | 155.53$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.34 | 651 | 57.1%372 W · 279 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ostapenko | 56c | 150.47$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.88 | 7,745 | 50.6%3,916 W · 3,829 L | +93.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f79…69cabacked Ostapenko | 56c | 150.13$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.07 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Ostapenko | 35c | 141.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Ostapenko | 52c | 140$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.8 | 4,882 | 38.8%1,892 W · 2,990 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Maria | 75c | 137.52$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.38 | 2,399 | 50.6%1,215 W · 1,184 L | +76.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2be…af12backed Maria | 66c | 128.97$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.39 | 2,032 | 46.9%952 W · 1,080 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Ostapenko | 55c | 120$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 72 | 63.9%46 W · 26 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Ostapenko | 37c | 107.36$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.72 | 3,204 | 40.5%1,299 W · 1,905 L | +28.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cb5…6be6backed Maria | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 250 | 51.2%128 W · 122 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Ostapenko | 58c | 68.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Ostapenko | 37c | 61.92$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 1,356 | 38.3%520 W · 836 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ostapenko | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Ostapenko | 55c | 53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.15 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Ostapenko | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2f9…eb15backed Ostapenko | 38c | 47.37$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 154 | 51.3%79 W · 75 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55e7…4fb9backed Ostapenko | 55c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 423 | 53%224 W · 199 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0009…5497backed Maria | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 1,880 | 48.5%912 W · 968 L | +8.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1dcb…9f08backed Maria | 47c | 42.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 206 | 35.9%74 W · 132 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Ostapenko | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 325 | 62.5%203 W · 122 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d09…7fd6backed Ostapenko | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 106 | 27.4%29 W · 77 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…dea8backed Ostapenko | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9888…e6febacked Maria | 69c | 32.78$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 2,447 | 45.9%1,123 W · 1,324 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Ostapenko | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 4,584 | 48.3%2,215 W · 2,369 L | +35.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Maria | 44c | 31.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 3,809 | 45.4%1,730 W · 2,079 L | -35.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Ostapenko | 37c | 31.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 5,377 | 48.7%2,617 W · 2,760 L | +16.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93dc…3728backed Ostapenko | 57c | 30.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 423 | 45.9%194 W · 229 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed Ostapenko | 55c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e39…fe16backed Ostapenko | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 708 | 21.2%150 W · 558 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Maria | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 745 | 47.4%353 W · 392 L | -28.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…512fbacked Maria | 67c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +83.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Maria vs Ostapenkothis page
- Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Jelena OstapenkoTatjana Maria won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.