Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x70f403db55ecae27272b524c6accc3c0d7d1affd6364005d6a2d8c51ea070c74
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Hokori, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x958c…a328backed Hokori | 15c | 3,094$464 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$464.1 | 283 | 47%133 W · 150 L | +10.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b0e…bd73backed Team Nemesis | 79c | 1,542$1,218 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$323.85 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Hokori | 16c | 1,489$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.28 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x048f…9992backed Hokori | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 211 | 0.5%1 W · 210 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -99.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5556…2759backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 925.66$738 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.13 | 292 | 43.2%126 W · 166 L | -14.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa474…32cbbacked Hokori | 21c | 636.29$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.62 | 538 | 44.4%239 W · 299 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Hokori | 21c | 571.43$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1065…6218backed Hokori | 21c | 558.63$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.47 | 100 | 36%36 W · 64 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3ea7…7fc0backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 558$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f6…38e8backed Hokori | 6c | 342.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 332 | 3%10 W · 322 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb91a…29ddbacked Hokori | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e31…0e6ebacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 229.17$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.17 | 150 | 69.3%104 W · 46 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09c1…0ddfbacked Hokori | 25c | 218.82$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.71 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 40cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e97…846abacked Hokori | 19c | 180.68$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hokori | 13c | 164.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.07 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Hokori | 16c | 143.88$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.02 | 382 | 44.5%170 W · 212 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Hokori | 9c | 126.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x1bac…d241backed Hokori | 20c | 96.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 101 | 38.6%39 W · 62 L | -5.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Hokori | 13c | 94.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c98…186dbacked Team Nemesis | 80c | 34.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +3.4wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)Team Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.