TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Hokori
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$47,920
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$45,119

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,920 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 89 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x60dd…40e5backed Team Nemesis49c7,167$3,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,648.1333453%177 W · 157 L+8.5wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xfa39…bb64backed Team Nemesis68c5,810$3,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,881.182040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa5e…1468backed Hokori41c2,275$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$933.492157.1%12 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6c…d38ebacked Hokori30c2,179$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$653.172065%13 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xca76…0c42backed Hokori41c2,059$851 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$851366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid+23.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x01c0…9bf5backed Hokori53c1,888$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.64540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x206c…2b8dbacked Hokori42c1,241$517 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$517.31742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7add…7a7bbacked Hokori41c1,191$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.281942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6da3…95a0backed Hokori53c1,120$594 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$593.6650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-10.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6d2…86e7backed Team Nemesis70c876.01$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.841540%6 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8144…8472backed Hokori43c855$371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$371.03540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xda2e…8904backed Hokori40c800$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0712…7b59backed Hokori39c776.56$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0acb…05c2backed Hokori53c768$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.04250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7300…e52cbacked Hokori34c745.25$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.629340.9%38 W · 55 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-5.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe075…bf89backed Hokori40c732.5$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2933240.6%13 W · 19 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Hokori33c721.88$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.611,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb9d5…180abacked Hokori41c700$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2871136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-24.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x85ae…5399backed Hokori40c693$277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.260%0 W · 6 L-2.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf479…2d49backed Hokori45c667.35$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.0wins-0.14per pick50cpaid-40%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x42ac…7b70backed Hokori42c655.53$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.71520%3 W · 12 L-3.4wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-56.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc573…c3e5backed Hokori40c628.03$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Hokori40c623.11$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.296038.3%23 W · 37 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-32.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff4…d731backed Hokori42c604.69$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$255.739744.3%43 W · 54 L-3.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3a95…343bbacked Hokori28c597$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.1669835.2%246 W · 452 L+15.7wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b7e…aea4backed Hokori40c549.63$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd93b…cd48backed Hokori42c511$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.119644.8%43 W · 53 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d7…4084backed Hokori41c505$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.05837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.11per pick48cpaid-39.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0193…bad1backed Hokori41c500.73$205 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.3757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+26.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8494…814abacked Hokori32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601323.1%3 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick35cpaid-46.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c27…97c2backed Hokori32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602835.7%10 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdb4c…f815backed Hokori32c500$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1601752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Hokori31c500$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1553330.3%10 W · 23 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x173f…e44dbacked Hokori52c500$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$260333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-27.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a91…0776backed Team Nemesis70c500$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1501560%9 W · 6 L+2.2wins+0.14per pick46cpaid+29.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xcef5…3881backed Hokori46c498.73$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$228.46540%2 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-17.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb57f…0c96backed Hokori40c497.78$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.114639.1%18 W · 28 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1ae1…c891backed Hokori40c488$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.233549.9%167 W · 168 L+6.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde41…58bdbacked Team Nemesis60c474.87$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.951250%6 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+28.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Hokori52c461.7$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.081637.5%6 W · 10 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f84…98f1backed Hokori33c461.03$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick54cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa3f0…9384backed Hokori41c458.54$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1881442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1c98…186dbacked Hokori40c425.54$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.085556.4%31 W · 24 L+3.4wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f46…9097backed Hokori31c400$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1241838.9%7 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-17.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8562…0a61backed Hokori41c372.99$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ae0…8f73backed Hokori40c371.43$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.57425%1 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick38cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Team Nemesis64c363.76$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.5729243.2%126 W · 166 L-14.4wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57e1…c97fbacked Hokori33c342.42$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1132846.4%13 W · 15 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-18.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68c9…aec3backed Hokori40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12014744.2%65 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x591d…f4dfbacked Hokori40c300$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1209942.4%42 W · 57 L-4.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2b35…0bfebacked Hokori30c267.78$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.3326445.1%119 W · 145 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x818c…2911backed Hokori40c265.22$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.09250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e20…e3c8backed Hokori41c247.14$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1021225%3 W · 9 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-57.8%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xab93…8479backed Hokori32c236.66$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.73850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa371…eaa5backed Hokori39c210.26$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8214643.8%64 W · 82 L-8.2wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-10.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Team Nemesis59c200$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8333445.2%151 W · 183 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Team Nemesis69c191.08$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.2314048.6%68 W · 72 L-0.2wins0.00per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0731…b73fbacked Hokori40c181.72$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf20b…e27dbacked Team Nemesis67c165.42$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.5911746.2%54 W · 63 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd22a…2a00backed Hokori40c165.19$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.533050%15 W · 15 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Hokori24c162.75$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.3140534.6%140 W · 265 L-4.4wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b3c…9f22backed Hokori32c162.5$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$527549.3%37 W · 38 L-1.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d3…bab9backed Hokori40c150$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607041.4%29 W · 41 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe893…afaebacked Hokori42c145.04$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.924452.3%23 W · 21 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Hokori52c142.75$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.235653.6%30 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x09a6…73c7backed Hokori38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$506654.5%36 W · 30 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+5.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Hokori40c123$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.23743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-5.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9506…6182backed Hokori50c120$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.2wins-0.23per pick52cpaid-46.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x46f8…68ccbacked Hokori32c118.5$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.7110643.4%46 W · 60 L-0.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ccf…cd14backed Team Nemesis70c112.63$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.17450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-13.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x490b…eec9backed Hokori27c108.39$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295841.4%24 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick42cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2338…27f6backed Hokori45c88.89$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4011444.7%51 W · 63 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8c8…7c4cbacked Team Nemesis65c82.83$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.626245.2%28 W · 34 L-3.0wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f14…ca5abacked Team Nemesis66c75.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.764247.6%20 W · 22 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Nemesis62c73.81$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.7278516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2ca8…7e67backed Hokori31c69.99$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.71942.1%8 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.09per pick33cpaid+41.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1032…4243backed Hokori40c62.86$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.14520%1 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3d60…6df2backed Hokori41c60$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.62343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-19.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6efa…a0a7backed Team Nemesis72c60$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.12161.9%13 W · 8 L+1.9wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+18.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c23…2f97backed Hokori34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Team Nemesis63c50$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.566545.6%303 W · 362 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5690…7a58backed Hokori22c48.51$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.67837.5%3 W · 5 L+1.2wins+0.15per pick23cpaid+45.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6a0…2212backed Team Nemesis63c39.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.685048%24 W · 26 L-2.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-15.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed Team Nemesis69c35.51$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x173c…a5aabacked Hokori41c33.95$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9240%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x92b5…2defbacked Hokori32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1095841.1%394 W · 564 L+32.7wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4836…859bbacked Hokori35c29.99$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.59952.5%52 W · 47 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d10…5c74backed Team Nemesis65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.95966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+12.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Team Nemesis60c17.32$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.9152950.9%269 W · 260 L+0.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.