Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5e5ca1155b37ee4660b0801b576cb22ac29e3cc693f9983d078b5a4ff31ce3cc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Hokori, Team Nemesis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,997
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,854
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,997 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Hokori | 14c | 1,928$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.97 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Hokori | 7c | 1,820$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.42 | 587 | 42.8%251 W · 336 L | -26.8wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -26%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6200…7d23backed Hokori | 4c | 1,597$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Hokori | 22c | 1,500$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 692 | 35.3%244 W · 448 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Hokori | 7c | 1,235$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.59 | 565 | 45%254 W · 311 L | -19.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecb…52a5backed Hokori | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae1…c891backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 907$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.55 | 335 | 49.9%167 W · 168 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Hokori | 13c | 880.95$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.04 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dc…12ecbacked Hokori | 4c | 741.31$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec69…6fbabacked Hokori | 7c | 731.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.89 | 225 | 43.6%98 W · 127 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x186a…559dbacked Team Nemesis | 77c | 649.78$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.78 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 63cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Hokori | 7c | 643.71$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.65 | 654 | 47.4%310 W · 344 L | -8.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52f9…1fb2backed Hokori | 16c | 613.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Hokori | 17c | 599.99$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x633e…ff78backed Hokori | 4c | 549.07$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe82c…4d90backed Hokori | 15c | 519.55$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.93 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 40cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb11…8f3fbacked Hokori | 4c | 499.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 105 | 51.4%54 W · 51 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a91…0776backed Hokori | 14c | 424.13$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.38 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Hokori | 7c | 415.83$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.93 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Hokori | 9c | 350$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 878 | 38.3%336 W · 542 L | -42.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Hokori | 19c | 329$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.51 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8c2…45b2backed Hokori | 10c | 327.05$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.79 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Hokori | 14c | 314.1$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.6 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad2c…4eecbacked Hokori | 19c | 300.19$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.68 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | -9.5wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e83…00aabacked Hokori | 18c | 295$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae35…5dd3backed Hokori | 14c | 286.09$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 156 | 43.6%68 W · 88 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Hokori | 5c | 255.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 376 | 32.2%121 W · 255 L | -13.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Hokori | 4c | 250$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 113 | 30.1%34 W · 79 L | -16.7wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb57f…0c96backed Hokori | 14c | 218.93$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.5wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd154…9c74backed Hokori | 10c | 217$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41e2…3ad5backed Hokori | 5c | 212.28$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | +76%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…9097backed Hokori | 14c | 171.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Hokori | 12c | 168$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 372 | 41.9%156 W · 216 L | -15.8wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed Hokori | 9c | 154$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 634 | 47.6%302 W · 332 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Hokori | 8c | 146.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 785 | 16.6%130 W · 655 L | -135.4wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x4572…47e7backed Hokori | 22c | 120$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 408 | 44.1%180 W · 228 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed Hokori | 23c | 116.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.83 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 36cpaid | +57.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x87fe…3cbebacked Hokori | 22c | 116.67$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -2.8wins | -0.20per pick | 34cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64d4…f056backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 86$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 276 | 36.2%100 W · 176 L | -15.4wins | -0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5f…c343backed Hokori | 16c | 75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Team Nemesis | 77c | 30.01$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.81 | 60 | 38.3%23 W · 37 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5430…fbbbbacked Team Nemesis | 78c | 21.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.79 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 497 | 32.2%160 W · 337 L | -47.1wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis (BO3) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Hokori vs Team Nemesis - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Game Handicap: Nem (-1.5) vs Hokori (+1.5)Team Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.