Tennis · resolved market
ATP Kitzbuhel: Ofner vs. Struff
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x713882618d3a23b42491e6c4bfb9b0375151ef71307365e17cd9abf6cf403c4b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Struffof Ofner, Struff
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,449
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,025
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,449 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Ofner | 43c | 10,566$4,536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,536.47 | 1,090 | 35.9%391 W · 699 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Struff | 55c | 6,792$3,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,076.51 | 391 | 44.2%173 W · 218 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Struff | 56c | 3,175$1,779 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,395.7 | 280 | 43.2%121 W · 159 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96df…4caabacked Struff | 47c | 2,148$1,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,139.29 | 260 | 39.2%102 W · 158 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229a…2712backed Ofner | 58c | 418.76$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f39…27a5backed Struff | 69c | 399.86$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.94 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0d…786fbacked Ofner | 16c | 320$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.93 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Ofner | 53c | 312.67$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.72 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf442…ccf8backed Ofner | 11c | 301.75$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.91 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Struff | 44c | 265.27$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.55 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Ofner | 58c | 226.19$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.19 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b5a…7618backed Ofner | 11c | 218$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 253 | 30%76 W · 177 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Struff | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 480 | 43.3%208 W · 272 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Struff | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112.77 | 639 | 42.4%271 W · 368 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58e…3af7backed Ofner | 60c | 184.88$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.6wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc559…ac69backed Ofner | 58c | 173.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Ofner | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Ofner | 59c | 169.72$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,212 | 33.1%401 W · 811 L | -16.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a90…8218backed Ofner | 56c | 165.27$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.55 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4243…35d1backed Ofner | 59c | 139.49$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.3 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -6.4wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xc043…8121backed Struff | 79c | 110$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.72 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 62cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Ofner | 60c | 100.25$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5530…d38dbacked Ofner | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 629 | 52.1%328 W · 301 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca38…460bbacked Ofner | 57c | 99.99$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.99 | 183 | 38.8%71 W · 112 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x639e…a9d4backed Struff | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 67 | 50.7%34 W · 33 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…fbf0backed Struff | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 204 | 31.4%64 W · 140 L | +7.7wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd920…b7b6backed Ofner | 55c | 60$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad94…85b1backed Struff | 43c | 52.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.16 | 122 | 31.1%38 W · 84 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafbc…a8b5backed Struff | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 65 | 60%39 W · 26 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Ofner | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.