Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x715321cf64a01d394d1893ec13dcb791d402f972a9852a8cad6bee1fb1b58213
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,886
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 22c | 1,136$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 11c | 911.17$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.38 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 22c | 534.58$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.26 | 67 | 26.9%18 W · 49 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 78c | 444$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.68 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 78c | 400$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 20c | 400$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 12c | 135.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d73…be4fbacked Over | 19c | 131.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 68 | 51.5%35 W · 33 L | +10.9wins | +0.16per pick | 35cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf572…065abacked Under | 80c | 106$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Under | 79c | 13.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.86 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.