Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4e81bc14ff1abaa46f2f49e4539ee6e8e041572b5c57df5edb4f7b44467b5c3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $90,200
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $97,305
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $90,200 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 12c | 47,143$5,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,640.22 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5f…4b52backed Under | 73c | 6,887$5,028 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,859.49 | 28 | 71.4%20 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 39c | 6,000$2,340 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,339.86 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 39c | 2,028$791 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$790.78 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 60c | 877.73$529 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.17 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 40c | 875$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775e…6541backed Over | 40c | 765.45$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.13 | 83 | 36.1%30 W · 53 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Under | 61c | 655.74$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.74 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 27c | 582.89$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.56 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Under | 61c | 476$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.64 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8104…3128backed Over | 30c | 424.69$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.09 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 237.04$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.62 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 76c | 197.37$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.37 | 189 | 58.2%110 W · 79 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee54…5665backed Under | 75c | 153.36$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.34 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051c…f25dbacked Over | 39c | 142$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.38 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.7wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfee4…d386backed Under | 61c | 121.46$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.36 | 187 | 46%86 W · 101 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 79c | 117.58$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.53 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3991…b6c7backed Over | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb69…c3e5backed Under | 75c | 95.47$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.15 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 59c | 85.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2b2d…379dbacked Over | 40c | 75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 39c | 65.71$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5565…4b3bbacked Under | 74c | 55.34$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.57 | 201 | 53.7%108 W · 93 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under | 72c | 49$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.51 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9487…54bbbacked Over | 38c | 39.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Under | 73c | 37.44$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 61c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.65 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Under | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 61c | 22$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65b3…7fc9backed Under | 73c | 19.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.36 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f25…dcffbacked Under | 74c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.55 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…b65abacked Under | 74c | 15.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.