Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x93915e84532d9b77a3223f838671e8ed21e7e67c18b4c156a635c2f601a31482
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,839
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,839 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf519…906bbacked Under | 38c | 7,000$2,660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,339.99 | 166 | 47%78 W · 88 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 40c | 6,491$2,569 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,921.84 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 60c | 4,974$3,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000.8 | 80 | 68.8%55 W · 25 L | +7.5wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 47c | 3,927$1,846 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080.84 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed Over | 62c | 3,684$2,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,301.81 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 61c | 3,000$1,830 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,830 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked Over | 61c | 2,459$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1244…c851backed Over | 61c | 2,061$1,257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,257.28 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | +5.8wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 2,000$755 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,245.33 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x678b…beafbacked Over | 60c | 1,664$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 19c | 1,302$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.6 | 84 | 20.2%17 W · 67 L | -8.7wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 60c | 965.61$578 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$387.18 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 39c | 899.99$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552.99 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dee…412bbacked Over | 62c | 645.16$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 88 | 46.6%41 W · 47 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 31c | 514.02$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.09 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 41c | 448.06$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.52 | 157 | 42%66 W · 91 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb113…8bc6backed Under | 38c | 444$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$275.28 | 143 | 64.3%92 W · 51 L | +14.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2412…b5a1backed Over | 61c | 409.84$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 67 | 68.7%46 W · 21 L | +6.2wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 59c | 400$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfd…2818backed Under | 68c | 365$248 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 54c | 291.98$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.58 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 42c | 286.36$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119 | 65 | 49.2%32 W · 33 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x90a5…9dccbacked Over | 32c | 266.7$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.26 | 67 | 61.2%41 W · 26 L | +13.8wins | +0.21per pick | 41cpaid | +56%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x22b9…6ae2backed Over | 40c | 248.34$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.23per pick | 55cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Under | 39c | 240$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 80c | 200.97$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.97 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…f4d0backed Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x22ae…af00backed Over | 58c | 200$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Over | 61c | 200$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5611…e5f4backed Over | 62c | 200$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Over | 56c | 197.27$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.47 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Over | 60c | 169$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 300 | 54%162 W · 138 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5df…c7debacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.28per pick | 51cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9475…a29ebacked Over | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…49b7backed Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 64 | 51.6%33 W · 31 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…fdc0backed Over | 62c | 135.56$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.05 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 37c | 121.75$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0097…f101backed Under | 57c | 110.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 58cpaid | +68.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…9127backed Over | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 60c | 108.45$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.64 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 38c | 103.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 311 | 45%140 W · 171 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Over | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 84 | 59.5%50 W · 34 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c13…99b7backed Over | 59c | 100$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 41c | 91.1$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.78 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 40c | 82.95$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.1 | 128 | 32%41 W · 87 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 45c | 80.53$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 167 | 50.9%85 W · 82 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Under | 38c | 80$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 138 | 52.2%72 W · 66 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 61c | 77$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 77 | 59.7%46 W · 31 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35b…0eccbacked Under | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Over | 61c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.48 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Under | 67c | 51$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6c2…ba6ebacked Over | 30c | 50.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 54.7%29 W · 24 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf01e…aed4backed Over | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 41c | 48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa0…441abacked Over | 56c | 47$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.32 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 66c | 45.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 58c | 43.1$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e63…2d79backed Under | 52c | 40.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.58 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6719…1e71backed Over | 34c | 40.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 44.4%52 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.85 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a3…790fbacked Over | 48c | 26.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +45.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 41c | 26.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 62c | 21.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Under | 67c | 21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1956…5348backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5Over won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.