Bundesliga · resolved market
VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x58ac4c6cb4e7d5371053afb8c86c3f98451359ebe8d0cc6c5ec9e80b5fe11259
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,182
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,777
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,182 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 8,150$2,123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,123.45 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 75c | 2,804$2,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$705.09 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 44c | 2,252$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.17 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc8…a613backed Over | 70c | 1,429$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.65 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Under | 19c | 1,257$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 71c | 712.53$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.28 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 66c | 486.58$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.74 | 129 | 51.2%66 W · 63 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 69c | 434.78$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.78 | 142 | 60.6%86 W · 56 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…0e75backed Over | 63c | 316.17$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.98 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x611a…e63ebacked Under | 9c | 200$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 34 | 5.9%2 W · 32 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1551…fdc0backed Over | 51c | 195.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.83 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…9127backed Over | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Over | 52c | 150$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 131 | 42%55 W · 76 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd12f…e80dbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab3…6adfbacked Over | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 38c | 132.42$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.62 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5fe…b52dbacked Under | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e29…9e66backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 79 | 50.6%40 W · 39 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 17c | 90.48$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 277 | 26.4%73 W · 204 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16b3…07f2backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 25 | 64%16 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +20.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbcb…1879backed Over | 61c | 81.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7048…13d5backed Over | 74c | 67.57$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 72cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x754d…893bbacked Over | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 56c | 24.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa326…6262backed Over | 61c | 21.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 64c | 21.09$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 78 | 67.9%53 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7643…80cbbacked Over | 63c | 20.2$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeddb…8afcbacked Over | 59c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.33per pick | 53cpaid | +72%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Over | 71c | 19.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.74 | 119 | 31.1%37 W · 82 L | -9.8wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 1.5this page
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 2.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 3.5Under won
- VfL Wolfsburg vs. 1. FC Heidenheim 1846: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.