Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fils (-2.5) vs Berrettini (+2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7168bfd7d72c93c6165d095a210e5221d01e58e9d067a3c0df1ccb976c563572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Fils, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,822
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,872
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,822 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f30…3aeebacked Berrettini | 76c | 3,149$2,401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.27 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | -7.6wins | -0.10per pick | 66cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Fils | 24c | 1,000$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Fils | 35c | 999.98$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.99 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Berrettini | 70c | 859.8$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$259.7 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fils | 23c | 838.56$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.87 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Fils | 29c | 634.71$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.47 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Fils | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 692 | 44.4%307 W · 385 L | +29.4wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Fils | 24c | 600$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Berrettini | 66c | 465.21$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.59 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Berrettini | 71c | 394$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.26 | 7,753 | 47.8%3,703 W · 4,050 L | +39.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Fils | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 447 | 42.3%189 W · 258 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x387e…3653backed Fils | 5c | 239.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Fils | 34c | 229$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.92 | 1,532 | 40.7%624 W · 908 L | -48.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Berrettini | 65c | 204.62$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x272b…075ebacked Fils | 41c | 162.8$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Berrettini | 70c | 142.86$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Fils | 24c | 110$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Berrettini | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.92 | 826 | 57.1%472 W · 354 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Berrettini | 65c | 76$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 1,877 | 59.4%1,115 W · 762 L | +8.5wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Berrettini | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78e…6421backed Berrettini | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 935 | 57.3%536 W · 399 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fils (-2.5) vs Berrettini (+2.5)this page
- Berrettini vs. Fils: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Berrettini vs. Fils: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Berrettini vs. Fils: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Matteo Berrettini vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Matteo Berrettini vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsBerrettini won
- Set 2 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsBerrettini won
- Set 3 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsFils won
- Set 4 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsBerrettini won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)Berrettini won
- Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur FilsMatteo Berrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.