Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2d5f4df63344dfca913fe3344dfb86b990a5b969220e0871f895434344c6a9b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Berrettiniof Fils, Berrettini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,095
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,095
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,095 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Fils | 49c | 3,859$1,891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,890.82 | 4,076 | 39.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L | +93.7wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff81…44c9backed Berrettini | 51c | 3,859$1,968 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,890.82 | 1,267 | 56.6%717 W · 550 L | -18.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0475…ed7abacked Fils | 52c | 2,303$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 52 | 13.5%7 W · 45 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -65.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa77…15a5backed Fils | 58c | 2,112$1,225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,224.9 | 348 | 57.2%199 W · 149 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Berrettini | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 1,510 | 37.7%569 W · 941 L | +24.5wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Berrettini | 42c | 714.29$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.29 | 1,681 | 50%841 W · 840 L | +30.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Berrettini | 47c | 618.28$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.69 | 1,149 | 41.3%474 W · 675 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Berrettini | 48c | 600$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312 | 7,049 | 39.7%2,795 W · 4,254 L | -20.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…7bfdbacked Fils | 52c | 532.51$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.33 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Berrettini | 42c | 500$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a58…b808backed Berrettini | 47c | 498.3$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.08 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Berrettini | 42c | 476.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.13 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd169…8ff6backed Berrettini | 48c | 411.62$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.04 | 284 | 37.3%106 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…dea8backed Fils | 52c | 384.7$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.04 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -5.2wins | -0.22per pick | 53cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x86ca…bc47backed Berrettini | 42c | 271.43$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.43 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…9197backed Fils | 54c | 248.3$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.08 | 335 | 58.5%196 W · 139 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Fils | 24c | 180.71$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 1,379 | 16.4%226 W · 1,153 L | -108.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2095…8521backed Berrettini | 48c | 163.62$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.08 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +12.1wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Fils | 55c | 133.23$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.03 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x778c…061abacked Berrettini | 49c | 120$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.2 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Berrettini | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 1,541 | 49.2%758 W · 783 L | +16.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Berrettini | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 485 | 52.4%254 W · 231 L | +7.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabbc…04a3backed Berrettini | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.43 | 189 | 57.7%109 W · 80 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Berrettini | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 942 | 55.8%526 W · 416 L | +19.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x167a…d542backed Berrettini | 71c | 70$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.3 | 1,837 | 59.2%1,088 W · 749 L | +8.4wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a5…2ce1backed Fils | 56c | 44.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.75 | 71 | 62%44 W · 27 L | +6.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xee5a…9f70backed Berrettini | 48c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 356 | 41.3%147 W · 209 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Berrettini | 46c | 32.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 3,874 | 45.4%1,758 W · 2,116 L | -39.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c97…c20bbacked Berrettini | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 158 | 37.3%59 W · 99 L | -19.6wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x02cd…cedcbacked Fils | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -53.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Berrettini | 50c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 263 | 55.1%145 W · 118 L | +36.9wins | +0.14per pick | 41cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Fils (-1.5) vs Berrettini (+1.5)this page
- Berrettini vs. Fils: Match O/U 36.5Over won
- Berrettini vs. Fils: Match O/U 38.5Over won
- Berrettini vs. Fils: Match O/U 40.5Under won
- Matteo Berrettini vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 3.5Over 3.5 won
- Matteo Berrettini vs. Arthur Fils: Total Sets O/U 4.5Under 4.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsBerrettini won
- Set 2 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsBerrettini won
- Set 3 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsFils won
- Set 4 Winner: Berrettini vs FilsBerrettini won
- Set Handicap: Fils (-2.5) vs Berrettini (+2.5)Berrettini won
- Wimbledon ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Arthur FilsMatteo Berrettini won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.