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Lol · resolved market

First Blood in Game 3?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
JD Gamingof Bilibili Gaming, JD Gaming
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,870

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,870 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 9 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet's whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0e86…1c5dbacked Bilibili Gaming60c1,393$837 inLost-$837.041346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked JD Gaming39c1,269$498 inWon+$770.6419648%94 W · 102 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+8.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ea8…b084backed Bilibili Gaming60c958.33$575 inLost-$5751435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-6.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x866a…de80backed JD Gaming48c135.42$65 inWon+$70.4222617.7%40 W · 186 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3b2…0497backed Bilibili Gaming60c83.33$50 inLost-$504240.5%17 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9cc5…625dbacked JD Gaming48c41.67$20 inWon+$21.674318.6%8 W · 35 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-41.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa1a7…b7abbacked JD Gaming48c31.25$15 inWon+$16.251656.3%9 W · 7 L-0.9wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb941…b56bbacked JD Gaming48c21.48$10 inWon+$11.2431646.5%147 W · 169 L-8.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x863f…7b79backed Bilibili Gaming52c20$10 inLost-$10.458955.9%329 W · 260 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+1.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80.
  • The position was at least $10.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.