Lol · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f11bfb944c4c782ebede6245963899c3346d2ce3fd9bf4364945320052fdef6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,089
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,089 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Lol | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 57c | 7,431$4,209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,221.19 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05a1…3bacbacked Over | 44c | 6,709$2,970 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,969.71 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x641c…9a65backed Under | 69c | 1,788$1,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$548.01 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +31%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…fde0backed Over | 35c | 1,500$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 769 | 53.4%411 W · 358 L | +13.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 65c | 736.7$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.84 | 1,224 | 48.3%591 W · 633 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 68c | 729.27$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.66 | 508 | 48.4%246 W · 262 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d51…3ac1backed Over | 32c | 713.21$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x098c…1c67backed Under | 65c | 462.59$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.43 | 1,035 | 47.2%489 W · 546 L | +26.2wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 31c | 437.9$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.72 | 129 | 37.2%48 W · 81 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x045d…185dbacked Over | 35c | 428.57$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 634 | 58.4%370 W · 264 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Over | 36c | 416.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 488 | 52%254 W · 234 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 64c | 405.28$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.9 | 2,406 | 42.6%1,026 W · 1,380 L | +21.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a3…f681backed Over | 34c | 400$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136 | 370 | 39.5%146 W · 224 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e12…20e9backed Under | 66c | 400$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136 | 120 | 35.8%43 W · 77 L | -12.6wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6a70…18f0backed Over | 34c | 300$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 175 | 42.3%74 W · 101 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…f86fbacked Over | 32c | 292$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3db3…af25backed Under | 68c | 285$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2560…0b02backed Under | 70c | 268$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.8 | 397 | 49.1%195 W · 202 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe07d…31c5backed Under | 68c | 201$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3e9…0310backed Over | 32c | 194$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b60…76d5backed Over | 22c | 81.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.81 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed Over | 26c | 78.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 39 | 30.8%12 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…887fbacked Over | 36c | 70.16$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81d…b365backed Over | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 268 | 65.7%176 W · 92 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Under | 65c | 65.2$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.82 | 302 | 47%142 W · 160 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…f2efbacked Over | 31c | 63.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 42c | 58$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.36 | 1,606 | 17.5%281 W · 1,325 L | -245.0wins | -0.15per pick | 33cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 29c | 53.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 2,679 | 35.7%957 W · 1,722 L | -153.5wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8088…24dabacked Over | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 211 | 40.8%86 W · 125 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf292…1cc7backed Over | 33c | 44.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x863f…7b79backed Under | 61c | 42.39$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.39 | 576 | 55.9%322 W · 254 L | +8.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80f9…3ab9backed Over | 36c | 41.87$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 211 | 46%97 W · 114 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Over | 31c | 36.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 3,584 | 40.1%1,437 W · 2,147 L | +31.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 64c | 29.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 1,599 | 46.8%748 W · 851 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Under | 68c | 28.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 243 | 56%136 W · 107 L | +9.2wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1991…3580backed Under | 68c | 25.52$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf05f…91d5backed Under | 68c | 22.16$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 62 | 62.9%39 W · 23 L | +5.0wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2550…f978backed Under | 77c | 21.01$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.83 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c0…5fc2backed Under | 70c | 17.14$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 128 | 62.5%80 W · 48 L | +12.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbae3…b968backed Under | 68c | 16.18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.18 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 4.5this page
- First Blood in Game 1?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 2?Bilibili Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 3?JD Gaming won
- First Blood in Game 4?Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-1.5) vs JD Gaming (+1.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Game Handicap: BLG (-2.5) vs JD Gaming (+2.5)JD Gaming won
- Game Handicap: JDG (-2.5) vs Bilibili Gaming (+2.5)Bilibili Gaming won
- Games Total: O/U 3.5Over won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO5) - LPL PlayoffsBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 1 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 2 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 3 WinnerJD Gaming won
- LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming - Game 4 WinnerBilibili Gaming won
- Total Kills Over/Under 22.5 in Game 3?Under won
- Total Kills Over/Under 27.5 in Game 2?Over won
- Total Kills Over/Under 28.5 in Game 1?Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.