Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Xavier Musketeers
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71c39985ffa8ca99d72bc8a0d3e1a4b9df67f8a61a0520db864b4120c486017e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Xavier Musketeersof Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,922
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,524
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,922 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1e3a…4033backed Xavier Musketeers | 80c | 6,200$4,960 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240 | 116 | 62.1%72 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 6,000$3,075 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,075 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 20c | 5,744$1,149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,148.8 | 691 | 42.8%296 W · 395 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 49c | 3,999$1,959 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,959.43 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Xavier Musketeers | 50c | 3,248$1,609 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,638.74 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0931…61dcbacked Xavier Musketeers | 56c | 3,010$1,698 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,312.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 2,785$1,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,336.7 | 354 | 52.3%185 W · 169 L | +17.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 2,030$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$997.44 | 2,579 | 47.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L | -42.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Xavier Musketeers | 64c | 1,900$1,214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$685.82 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Xavier Musketeers | 63c | 1,886$1,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$700.5 | 3,905 | 58.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L | +165.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 46c | 1,496$690 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$689.76 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 41c | 1,465$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$599.25 | 5,946 | 49.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L | +163.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x81f5…70afbacked Xavier Musketeers | 48c | 1,456$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.12 | 71 | 45.1%32 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 25c | 1,131$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.73 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 1,050$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.95 | 556 | 57.4%319 W · 237 L | +20.3wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 42c | 947.8$401 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.25 | 100 | 41%41 W · 59 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 44c | 864.97$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.59 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Xavier Musketeers | 56c | 551$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.44 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 29c | 502.43$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.59 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 31c | 476$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.48 | 3,684 | 42.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L | +32.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 430.19$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.49 | 163 | 41.7%68 W · 95 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 31c | 410$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.86 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 39c | 291$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.52 | 771 | 42.3%326 W · 445 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 284$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.32 | 176 | 50.6%89 W · 87 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 280$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.2 | 107 | 48.6%52 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 279.55$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.59 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 23c | 270$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.45 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 253$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.35 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 250$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 170 | 51.2%87 W · 83 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 244.9$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.9 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Xavier Musketeers | 68c | 235.85$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.58 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 505 | 46.9%237 W · 268 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 189.09$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.76 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a09…cdffbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 51c | 184.31$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 173.42$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.51 | 820 | 48.2%395 W · 425 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f3…dfffbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 43c | 140$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.2 | 1,173 | 25.2%296 W · 877 L | -43.0wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 137.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.26 | 110 | 55.5%61 W · 49 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5942…5641backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 128.14$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 323 | 37.2%120 W · 203 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Xavier Musketeers | 50c | 125.5$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.45 | 4,848 | 52.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L | +139.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 42c | 117.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Xavier Musketeers | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 1,070 | 46.9%502 W · 568 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Xavier Musketeers | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 349 | 47.9%167 W · 182 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54f…dce8backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 643 | 22.9%147 W · 496 L | -17.1wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b44…d8debacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 29c | 99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.71 | 191 | 53.9%103 W · 88 L | +10.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Xavier Musketeers | 65c | 99$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.65 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 26c | 73.88$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.37 | 100 | 37%37 W · 63 L | -8.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 68.63$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.63 | 130 | 50%65 W · 65 L | -2.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Xavier Musketeers | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 2,555 | 41.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ac9…12d3backed Xavier Musketeers | 54c | 48.98$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.53 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc87…4b4bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 48.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 61c | 46$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 1,633 | 47.3%773 W · 860 L | +25.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a44…d80abacked Xavier Musketeers | 49c | 40.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb4…83dcbacked Xavier Musketeers | 54c | 38.35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9af…40b1backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 36.37$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16a3…4239backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 48c | 35.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa00f…8e56backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 35c | 33.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 735 | 49.1%361 W · 374 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa294…5d4abacked Xavier Musketeers | 54c | 33.01$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.18 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3659…1c2dbacked Xavier Musketeers | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6da8…d660backed Cincinnati Bearcats | 47c | 24.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b28…02dbbacked Xavier Musketeers | 63c | 23.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.81 | 35 | 77.1%27 W · 8 L | +2.3wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf5…3e16backed Xavier Musketeers | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.