TailMyPicks

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Ncaa Basketball · resolved market

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Xavier Musketeers

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Xavier Musketeersof Cincinnati Bearcats, Xavier Musketeers
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$43,922
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,524

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,922 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1e3a…4033backed Xavier Musketeers80c6,200$4,960 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,24011662.1%72 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Cincinnati Bearcats51c6,000$3,075 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0755944.1%26 W · 33 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Cincinnati Bearcats20c5,744$1,149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,148.869142.8%296 W · 395 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Cincinnati Bearcats49c3,999$1,959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,959.4336944.2%163 W · 206 L-19.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Xavier Musketeers50c3,248$1,609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,638.741,51147.8%722 W · 789 L-35.2wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0931…61dcbacked Xavier Musketeers56c3,010$1,698 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,312.25250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-11.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x52b4…34a8backed Xavier Musketeers52c2,785$1,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,336.735452.3%185 W · 169 L+17.5wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Xavier Musketeers51c2,030$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.442,57947.3%1,221 W · 1,358 L-42.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Xavier Musketeers64c1,900$1,214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$685.821,91049.6%947 W · 963 L+30.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Xavier Musketeers63c1,886$1,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$700.53,90558.8%2,298 W · 1,607 L+165.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Cincinnati Bearcats46c1,496$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$689.7612,42249.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L+118.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Cincinnati Bearcats41c1,465$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$599.255,94649.3%2,932 W · 3,014 L+163.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81f5…70afbacked Xavier Musketeers48c1,456$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$757.127145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-13.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Cincinnati Bearcats25c1,131$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$280.735,55347.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L+26.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb13d…2e90backed Cincinnati Bearcats48c1,050$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.9555657.4%319 W · 237 L+20.3wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Cincinnati Bearcats42c947.8$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.2510041%41 W · 59 L+0.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a7f…4b5dbacked Cincinnati Bearcats44c864.97$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.591241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Xavier Musketeers56c551$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.4433438.9%130 W · 204 L-16.2wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-23.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Cincinnati Bearcats29c502.43$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.591,88745.2%853 W · 1,034 L+6.5wins0.00per pick45cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Cincinnati Bearcats31c476$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.483,68442.8%1,576 W · 2,108 L+32.6wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Cincinnati Bearcats48c430.19$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.4916341.7%68 W · 95 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Cincinnati Bearcats31c410$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.861,42043.9%623 W · 797 L+8.4wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-18.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats39c291$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.5277142.3%326 W · 445 L+2.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-17%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8717…49a8backed Xavier Musketeers52c284$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.3217650.6%89 W · 87 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe463…f7b2backed Xavier Musketeers51c280$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.210748.6%52 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Xavier Musketeers49c279.55$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.591,39144.1%613 W · 778 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Cincinnati Bearcats23c270$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.451,95145.1%880 W · 1,071 L-19.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc42c…42a1backed Xavier Musketeers51c253$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.3563551.5%327 W · 308 L+9.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8532…738bbacked Xavier Musketeers51c250$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.517051.2%87 W · 83 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b20…99e9backed Xavier Musketeers49c244.9$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.979448.9%388 W · 406 L+1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed Xavier Musketeers68c235.85$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.5845644.5%203 W · 253 L-16.8wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3fbc…9cf6backed Xavier Musketeers49c204.08$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0850546.9%237 W · 268 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7f7…2abfbacked Xavier Musketeers52c189.09$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.7652928.4%150 W · 379 L-9.2wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-10.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a09…cdffbacked Cincinnati Bearcats51c184.31$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b3a…2841backed Xavier Musketeers53c173.42$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.5182048.2%395 W · 425 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89f3…dfffbacked Cincinnati Bearcats43c140$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21,17325.2%296 W · 877 L-43.0wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-21.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70a1…978abacked Xavier Musketeers51c137.26$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.2611055.5%61 W · 49 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5942…5641backed Xavier Musketeers53c128.14$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.2332337.2%120 W · 203 L-8.5wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-12.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Xavier Musketeers50c125.5$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.454,84852.2%2,532 W · 2,316 L+139.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Cincinnati Bearcats42c117.69$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504,38240.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L+23.7wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34fa…f491backed Xavier Musketeers52c100$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$481,07046.9%502 W · 568 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe50b…c2a8backed Xavier Musketeers53c100$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4734947.9%167 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc54f…dce8backed Cincinnati Bearcats20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8364322.9%147 W · 496 L-17.1wins-0.03per pick26cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Cincinnati Bearcats29c99$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7119153.9%103 W · 88 L+10.6wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc5b5…7e80backed Xavier Musketeers65c99$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.652,00353.7%1,076 W · 927 L+101.7wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+2.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x23fe…9788backed Cincinnati Bearcats26c73.88$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3710037%37 W · 63 L-8.6wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-30.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x602d…3534backed Xavier Musketeers51c68.63$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.6313050%65 W · 65 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Xavier Musketeers59c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.552,55541.6%1,062 W · 1,493 L-15.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-20.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac9…12d3backed Xavier Musketeers54c48.98$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.531100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc87…4b4bbacked Cincinnati Bearcats48c48.56$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x742f…d673backed Cincinnati Bearcats61c46$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.0644955.2%248 W · 201 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Xavier Musketeers49c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.951,63347.3%773 W · 860 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0a44…d80abacked Xavier Musketeers49c40.4$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.61258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.8wins+0.15per pick44cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eb4…83dcbacked Xavier Musketeers54c38.35$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.641100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe9af…40b1backed Cincinnati Bearcats48c36.37$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x16a3…4239backed Cincinnati Bearcats48c35.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa00f…8e56backed Cincinnati Bearcats35c33.75$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8573549.1%361 W · 374 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-13.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa294…5d4abacked Xavier Musketeers54c33.01$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3659…1c2dbacked Xavier Musketeers71c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6da8…d660backed Cincinnati Bearcats47c24.55$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.54650%3 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b28…02dbbacked Xavier Musketeers63c23.81$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.813577.1%27 W · 8 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick71cpaid+11.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbf5…3e16backed Xavier Musketeers51c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+96.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.