Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71cc889f080c9dc4e0548b4dae73939bd59ab8f942ead0a8820521082b76c4f4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,230
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,785
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,230 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8a2c…3c32backed Yes | 72c | 1,389$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.89 | 37 | 75.7%28 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Yes | 66c | 1,077$706 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.44 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 36c | 966.62$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.23 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 30c | 654.72$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.23 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 60c | 455$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.13 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5659…7a6bbacked No | 29c | 275.87$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.62 | 529 | 23.8%126 W · 403 L | -25.8wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 29c | 209.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.25 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 70c | 168.44$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.34 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1045…06c8backed Yes | 50c | 103$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.5 | 53 | 62.3%33 W · 20 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…c5d2backed Yes | 72c | 102$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 70c | 97$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 915 | 53%485 W · 430 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Yes | 70c | 95$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7655…f0b2backed Yes | 72c | 69.41$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.41 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Yes | 71c | 55.29$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5767…490ebacked Yes | 74c | 53.81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 50c | 46.4$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Yes | 68c | 35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.23 | 123 | 46.3%57 W · 66 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 71c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 60c | 34.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 54c | 34.4$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.86 | 967 | 56.8%549 W · 418 L | +73.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Yes | 67c | 33.29$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.85 | 362 | 47.2%171 W · 191 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Yes | 69c | 30.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.52 | 178 | 58.4%104 W · 74 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd940…e682backed Yes | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a07…267fbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 66c | 17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.78 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.