Mls · resolved market
New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c6c69912dee10fc365ca153a5c99f925807df68cb0b6d0f71799ae02158d4cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,349
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,522
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,349 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 51c | 7,842$3,994 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,994.12 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa36f…180bbacked Under | 49c | 7,795$3,819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,975.29 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 53c | 6,150$3,234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,916.58 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe020…f39bbacked Over | 48c | 6,000$2,860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,860 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 3,555$1,774 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,781.19 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf059…6dd9backed Over | 50c | 2,398$1,199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,198.94 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd93b…cd48backed Over | 50c | 1,522$761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$761 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…92d3backed Under | 50c | 1,500$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$750 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…0d85backed Over | 50c | 1,422$711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$711.23 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe954…1ef1backed Under | 49c | 1,335$654 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$680.65 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ae…d35bbacked Over | 51c | 1,333$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$679.65 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224f…514abacked Over | 51c | 454.71$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.9 | 103 | 58.3%60 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91fe…c1c6backed Over | 25c | 363.2$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.87 | 382 | 46.1%176 W · 206 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eca…c56abacked Under | 76c | 288$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 145 | 49.7%72 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Under | 78c | 255.71$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.71 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 30c | 236.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.9 | 1,262 | 45.2%571 W · 691 L | -28.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8314…0f1ebacked Over | 48c | 202.6$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +7.6wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2983…4eb2backed Under | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 49c | 166.06$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.48 | 681 | 50.8%346 W · 335 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50e5…e39fbacked Under | 50c | 112$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 184 | 56.5%104 W · 80 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.9 | 1,270 | 48%610 W · 660 L | -7.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0fb…8092backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 34.2%26 W · 50 L | -8.4wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 49c | 96.98$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.46 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Under | 50c | 94.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.49 | 444 | 47.3%210 W · 234 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Under | 50c | 93$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.5 | 366 | 46.7%171 W · 195 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…1b78backed Under | 50c | 86$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.06 | 102 | 57.8%59 W · 43 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Under | 50c | 81.75$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.88 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24ce…da46backed Over | 51c | 77.41$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.48 | 55 | 58.2%32 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Under | 50c | 72.07$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.04 | 59 | 66.1%39 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6407…d360backed Under | 48c | 62.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 71 | 49.3%35 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3d2…55f7backed Under | 50c | 59.98$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92f5…52a2backed Under | 50c | 56.22$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 72 | 56.9%41 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Over | 51c | 52.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.66 | 156 | 38.5%60 W · 96 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Over | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 204 | 49%100 W · 104 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ab…0dc8backed Over | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Over | 52c | 45.95$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 394 | 35.8%141 W · 253 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22da…2866backed Under | 50c | 44.62$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 149 | 57.7%86 W · 63 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba2…d212backed Under | 69c | 44.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 196 | 41.3%81 W · 115 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa250…b806backed Over | 50c | 42.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.26 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 27c | 41.12$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 287 | 21.6%62 W · 225 L | -29.9wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 75c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Under | 50c | 36.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 685 | 50.5%346 W · 339 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 50c | 35.76$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.88 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -10.9wins | -0.13per pick | 43cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Over | 29c | 34.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6db…3155backed Over | 51c | 30.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 169 | 48.5%82 W · 87 L | -7.6wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xabad…f40bbacked Under | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1715…a049backed Over | 51c | 29.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd97…ae50backed Under | 50c | 25.44$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.72 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +45.6%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x361b…74febacked Over | 52c | 25.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8af…9426backed Under | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +3.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +32.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Over | 49c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5266…aac8backed Over | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.23per pick | 52cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 3.5this page
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: Chicago Fire FC O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- New York Red Bulls vs. Chicago Fire FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-1.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: Chicago Fire FC (-2.5)New York Red Bulls won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-1.5)Chicago Fire FC won
- Spread: New York Red Bulls (-2.5)Chicago Fire FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.