Chess · resolved market
Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71d850e72051e341981bcc593505eadf669c44d1cb2137e94744d4e7115700b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,939
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,145
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,939 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a74…312fbacked Yes | 25c | 3,059$764 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,294.91 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 29cpaid | -42.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f69…7df1backed No | 74c | 2,166$1,606 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,606.5 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 19c | 385.88$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.7 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 59c | 339.07$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.91 | 57 | 50.9%29 W · 28 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 76c | 300$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44c0…47c5backed Yes | 10c | 189.2$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.90per pick | 10cpaid | +900%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71db…1700backed No | 9c | 182.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Yes | 15c | 145$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.25 | 92 | 47.8%44 W · 48 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa497…0720backed Yes | 43c | 111.99$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.7 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8b…f894backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5cc…0540backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +43.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf72c…f818backed No | 80c | 99.61$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed Yes | 20c | 94.24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 19c | 86.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Yes | 21c | 60$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cea…ac28backed Yes | 71c | 56.66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4091…10e2backed No | 24c | 55.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 27c | 43.83$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.12 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 52c | 34.96$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.78 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ed…5dc7backed No | 79c | 29.62$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.75per pick | 75cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 63c | 19.66$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 69c | 16.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.65 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd6…8c92backed No | 80c | 12.82$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hikaru Nakamura win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?this page
- Will Fabiano Caruana win on 2026-04-07 at FIDE Candidates 2026 Open?No won
- Will Hikaru Nakamura vs. Fabiano Caruana end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.