Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e2e0a05f03a5956360913e8207d3a33d9662753909f031134925d080cde69f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Nottingham Forest FCof Aston Villa FC, Nottingham Forest FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec51…4741backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 1,352$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.06 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4855…d1d9backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 1,286$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2307…1d17backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 1,242$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3efa…9027backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 949$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3aec…bea2backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 903$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ea…5a1dbacked Aston Villa FC | 6c | 738$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdccc…7a80backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 719$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.7 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfeca…1a1cbacked Aston Villa FC | 6c | 713$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ed…45fdbacked Aston Villa FC | 6c | 710$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7607…b132backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 681$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xffc5…9eafbacked Aston Villa FC | 6c | 667$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43ea…30d2backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 654$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa51c…53eebacked Aston Villa FC | 5c | 652$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ae…56b8backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 648$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3485…4699backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 646$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf3…7ea6backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 643.26$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd8…14cfbacked Aston Villa FC | 6c | 638$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6283…e84cbacked Aston Villa FC | 6c | 636$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e08…6aa2backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 635.91$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x002c…8357backed Aston Villa FC | 6c | 633.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.72 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Aston Villa FC | 5c | 281.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.