TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Premier League · resolved market

Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$340,567
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$338,365

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $340,567 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 278 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Premier League
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x38f0…2768backed Over50c116,400$58,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58,2001369.2%9 W · 4 L+2.0wins+0.16per pick54cpaid+26.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Under50c70,000$35,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,00016651.2%85 W · 81 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c4…6f95backed Under55c48,052$26,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,642.8316040.6%65 W · 95 L-12.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-15.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa2cc…0cbcbacked Over50c30,386$15,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,133.041758.8%10 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+15.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3759…6127backed Over62c23,315$14,462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,461.98450%2 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-32.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under50c19,660$9,813 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,846.872,21249.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L-9.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1ba1…1ce4backed Under53c17,593$9,307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,285.92774.1%20 W · 7 L+5.7wins+0.21per pick53cpaid+40.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Under50c16,000$7,970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,03013348.9%65 W · 68 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-1.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a91…c6b1backed Under52c12,597$6,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,046.645145.1%23 W · 28 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick53cpaid-16.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under50c12,000$6,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,00017557.1%100 W · 75 L+10.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under50c9,952$5,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,951.662,55047.8%1,218 W · 1,332 L+45.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d1d…afd2backed Over45c8,110$3,685 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,685.4640655.2%224 W · 182 L+12.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over51c4,853$2,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,475.0376842.6%327 W · 441 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa800…bd7abacked Over50c4,850$2,425 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,4253735.1%13 W · 24 L-3.3wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under46c4,356$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,356.532,66145.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L-11.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-9.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under40c4,338$1,720 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,618.736,11745.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L-28.6wins0.00per pick46cpaid-12.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x05e3…4b87backed Over48c4,166$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,999.8212649.2%62 W · 64 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7236…ea53backed Over47c4,161$1,973 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,973.4714652.1%76 W · 70 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid+0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed Under50c4,000$1,990 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,01040953.3%218 W · 191 L+11.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1333…173bbacked Over47c3,905$1,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,835.52944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick47cpaid+8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under56c3,521$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,534.344,74441.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L+28.2wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Over46c3,200$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,480.9230057%171 W · 129 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd27d…a84fbacked Over45c3,125$1,416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,416.149352.7%49 W · 44 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Over46c3,080$1,423 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,423.2427552.7%145 W · 130 L-1.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-6.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74d0…de45backed Under38c3,036$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,869.44540%18 W · 27 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-13.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Over46c3,018$1,393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,393.4639555.9%221 W · 174 L+17.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb13…5946backed Over47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41014158.2%82 W · 59 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd500…4568backed Under52c2,721$1,415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,305.97757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under51c2,562$1,305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,256.9455751.5%287 W · 270 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62ff…5058backed Over48c2,017$968 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.312948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb9ab…f282backed Under52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9607357.5%42 W · 31 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5054…0aafbacked Under52c1,936$1,007 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$929.292055%11 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d9…41c7backed Under53c1,834$972 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$861.785100%5 W · 0 L+2.4wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+91.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under50c1,818$909 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$908.881,22049.8%607 W · 613 L+4.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96d9…18a0backed Over47c1,800$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8467250%36 W · 36 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22d2…82d7backed Over11c1,792$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.234531.1%14 W · 31 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-38.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4920…2ef4backed Over80c1,544$1,235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2353154.8%17 W · 14 L-0.9wins-0.03per pick58cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ae5…4f22backed Over75c1,300$971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$970.989157.1%52 W · 39 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-12.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xab90…5793backed Over79c1,254$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.642552%13 W · 12 L-4.3wins-0.17per pick69cpaid-25.9%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xe4d0…8814backed Over80c1,241$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$987.741163.6%7 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.04per pick60cpaid+9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under40c1,183$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$708.7774644.8%334 W · 412 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-17%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Over46c1,125$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.1723556.2%132 W · 103 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Over45c1,074$483 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.4529250%146 W · 146 L+7.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0176…910ebacked Under18c1,060$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$869.428445.2%38 W · 46 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-8.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xade2…8757backed Over46c1,052$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.811555.7%64 W · 51 L-2.3wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Under51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4906439.1%25 W · 39 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick47cpaid-21.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa8bb…e40fbacked Over48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4803948.7%19 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3d3…f2bcbacked Under49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51026651.1%136 W · 130 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3388…61d7backed Under50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50017062.4%106 W · 64 L+13.2wins+0.08per pick55cpaid+16.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over47c999.98$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.9996443.7%421 W · 543 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-5.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3f6a…a7bfbacked Under50c900$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45014355.9%80 W · 63 L+3.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab20…e6a0backed Over80c757.82$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x116c…e162backed Over48c741.79$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.398345.8%38 W · 45 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46d3…2c20backed Over59c661.45$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.26250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid+19%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60ab…e297backed Under50c606.56$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.2814354.5%78 W · 65 L+0.5wins0.00per pick54cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54a6…7401backed Under50c606.24$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.1213846.4%64 W · 74 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x606f…b043backed Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30012757.5%73 W · 54 L+5.0wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f8b…9e2dbacked Under50c600$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30013855.1%76 W · 62 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe02…dababacked Under52c560.31$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.951866.7%12 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.19per pick47cpaid+37.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xaf0e…3197backed Over55c540.45$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.0430059.7%179 W · 121 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over48c517.34$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.3211449.1%56 W · 58 L+5.6wins+0.05per pick44cpaid+17.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd239…2083backed Over48c504.72$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.276852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf1e0…041bbacked Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25014658.2%85 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6fa1…6edbbacked Under50c500$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25013858.7%81 W · 57 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc249…8a61backed Under47c499.99$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.993842.1%16 W · 22 L-5.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xf706…f685backed Over51c497.63$255 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$254.534057.5%23 W · 17 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4946…4004backed Under53c458.4$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.454744.7%21 W · 26 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x768f…8a9bbacked Over79c425.91$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.472339.1%9 W · 14 L-3.1wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Over46c420.77$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.5224052.9%127 W · 113 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e05…2ebcbacked Under52c407.9$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.7918156.4%102 W · 79 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6001…0457backed Under50c404.17$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.099152.7%48 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+9.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca6…6a20backed Over48c403.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.766451.6%33 W · 31 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8ed…8bb4backed Over48c403.67$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.763562.9%22 W · 13 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe96f…70bbbacked Over56c403.34$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.89250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9859…1650backed Over48c397.21$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.66666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.25per pick42cpaid+98.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcf37…993fbacked Over49c388$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19110234.3%35 W · 67 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9f5…0688backed Under50c387.94$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.945642.9%24 W · 32 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed Under51c367.69$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.3369851.1%357 W · 341 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0640…1cd6backed Under53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.36560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x431c…12ecbacked Under53c366.72$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.36966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.6wins+0.18per pick48cpaid+39.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x47fb…0c7bbacked Under52c359.34$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.4916858.3%98 W · 70 L+8.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe4b3…c131backed Over45c340$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.21per pick61cpaid-46.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe414…c341backed Under50c316.86$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$156.8613347.4%63 W · 70 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Under48c290.64$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1315038%57 W · 93 L-4.5wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f81…2bb7backed Under50c285.73$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.8712558.4%73 W · 52 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc58a…b8f8backed Under50c284.56$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.285657.1%32 W · 24 L+0.1wins0.00per pick57cpaid-7.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8942…1e76backed Over52c279.33$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.956145.9%28 W · 33 L-6.9wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-22.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under54c241.01$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7619244.8%86 W · 106 L-10.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x033b…5e3fbacked Over46c217.55$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.694856.3%27 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Under52c210.62$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.0680953.6%434 W · 375 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under48c208.02$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.1710848.1%52 W · 56 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over47c204.4$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.071,07445%483 W · 591 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Over48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8828859.7%172 W · 116 L+19.6wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85d8…3cbebacked Over48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8822242.8%95 W · 127 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Over48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8810861.1%66 W · 42 L+5.1wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x49ec…ac1cbacked Over50c200.24$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.794238.1%16 W · 26 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick49cpaid-36.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Over7c200$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1477336.4%281 W · 492 L-10.3wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-23.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0655…faf8backed Over55c194.97$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.326553.8%35 W · 30 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ece…8786backed Over50c194$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$972850%14 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-13.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x373b…1107backed Over48c193.76$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9310147.5%48 W · 53 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.