Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x646428a0b1dd58d083eed429eb001ee3753a2026b31427d9207eb5ea926ef14b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,108
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 24c | 9,319$2,211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,211.04 | 2,558 | 47.7%1,221 W · 1,337 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f42…8bbcbacked Over | 77c | 8,637$6,621 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,015.92 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1414…ae7bbacked Over | 75c | 1,986$1,489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.44 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0176…910ebacked Under | 11c | 1,738$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.31 | 84 | 45.2%38 W · 46 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 24c | 1,283$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.09 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa557…5e8abacked Under | 2c | 1,088$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.88 | 93 | 3.2%3 W · 90 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 3cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 26c | 1,058$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.77 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x458c…ee3ebacked Over | 75c | 656.67$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.17 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 68cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96a0…79ddbacked Over | 75c | 615.13$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 65cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 31c | 444.57$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.81 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 25c | 389$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 73c | 342$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.34 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 27c | 262.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 27c | 262.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 275 | 52.7%145 W · 130 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 27c | 262.62$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.68 | 300 | 57%171 W · 129 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Over | 78c | 256.57$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.44 | 300 | 59.7%179 W · 121 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 73c | 250.63$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.67 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82de…1337backed Under | 27c | 239.65$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.71 | 167 | 57.5%96 W · 71 L | +7.1wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 27c | 198.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 206 | 51.9%107 W · 99 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 27c | 177.07$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.81 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 77c | 174.56$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 395 | 61.3%242 W · 153 L | -21.3wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d2…2be9backed Over | 75c | 165.13$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.31 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 23c | 132.03$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.99 | 611 | 43.7%267 W · 344 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Over | 75c | 131.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.83 | 155 | 60%93 W · 62 L | -10.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 73c | 127.4$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 1,240 | 42.2%523 W · 717 L | -29.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc56f…3670backed Over | 75c | 123.62$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.49 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf88…3ed6backed Over | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7e…fac0backed Over | 75c | 98.5$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.62 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 72c | 98.32$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.53 | 596 | 45.5%271 W · 325 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 25c | 91.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8941…83d7backed Over | 75c | 62.06$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 58 | 55.2%32 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.08per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 78c | 50.61$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.13 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 796 | 39.6%315 W · 481 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e1d…43debacked Under | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 51 | 66.7%34 W · 17 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 73c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 297 | 51.9%154 W · 143 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 69c | 47.11$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 140 | 55%77 W · 63 L | +18.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0c…a98fbacked Under | 24c | 45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e70…205ebacked Over | 74c | 38.35$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.79 | 29 | 58.6%17 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe083…d0d5backed Over | 70c | 28.05$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfab9…2b7fbacked Over | 72c | 27.16$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -31%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4bf…f385backed Over | 75c | 26.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 69cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x934f…c36ebacked Over | 68c | 26.64$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9ec…f845backed Over | 74c | 19.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…6b53backed Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 75cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Over | 75c | 19.7$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.92 | 82 | 58.5%48 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.