Premier League · resolved market
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7af617c47a07480c0a4fce51e2aa649ae943c2cc9217d59b45b2be884cf1f074
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,385
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Under | 66c | 2,551$1,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.01 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 68c | 1,525$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.38 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc367…a0b4backed Over | 28c | 1,025$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.03 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95ef…ff92backed Over | 31c | 773.06$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.65 | 63 | 17.5%11 W · 52 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd90d…cf07backed Over | 47c | 728.99$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$342.63 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0a…cbc9backed Over | 28c | 684.56$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.68 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 62c | 611.48$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.4 | 746 | 44.8%334 W · 412 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74d0…de45backed Over | 48c | 547.08$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.6 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 30c | 479$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.7 | 118 | 28%33 W · 85 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 28c | 368.78$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.26 | 102 | 21.6%22 W · 80 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed Under | 58c | 336.14$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.18 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 41c | 310.09$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.3 | 2,212 | 49.3%1,091 W · 1,121 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 21c | 197.43$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 4,768 | 41.8%1,993 W · 2,775 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2256…e997backed Over | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.06 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 13c | 189.4$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 1,409 | 44.5%627 W · 782 L | -6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce9d…3c05backed Under | 58c | 185.43$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.21 | 89 | 53.9%48 W · 41 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 33c | 178.38$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.28 | 1,938 | 42.5%823 W · 1,115 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 73c | 159.99$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 277 | 52.3%145 W · 132 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 26c | 145.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.85 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc866…8c6dbacked Over | 56c | 117.91$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.2 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aec…ef65backed Over | 17c | 113.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffd…7821backed Under | 51c | 108.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.85 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 47c | 82.44$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 203 | 36.9%75 W · 128 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6859…f7c2backed Over | 31c | 77.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…6f95backed Under | 54c | 74.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 160 | 40.6%65 W · 95 L | -12.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…16c5backed Over | 27c | 70.83$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 113 | 48.7%55 W · 58 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd28e…a78fbacked Over | 28c | 68.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 83 | 62.7%52 W · 31 L | +5.7wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7113…dba4backed Over | 28c | 64.93$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 409 | 42.1%172 W · 237 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 64c | 57.71$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 432 | 41.9%181 W · 251 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…2e40backed Under | 61c | 57.58$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee09…1199backed Under | 67c | 51.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Over | 51c | 46.73$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.83 | 320 | 49.1%157 W · 163 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 35c | 35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 100 | 54%54 W · 46 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xade7…9d34backed Under | 64c | 34.25$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 417 | 60.2%251 W · 166 L | +22.8wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Under | 71c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 70c | 17.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 406 | 55.2%224 W · 182 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Nottingham Forest FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-1.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Aston Villa FC (-2.5)Nottingham Forest FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-1.5)Aston Villa FC won
- Spread: Nottingham Forest FC (-2.5)Aston Villa FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.