Tennis · resolved market
Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x71e8b58409d14b2a0360954053aadbe78c50f2169335c2df6391a6cec116e160
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Altmaierof Tiafoe, Altmaier
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,211
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,211 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd65…ee96backed Tiafoe | 49c | 15,430$7,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,500 | 363 | 46.8%170 W · 193 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea32…8870backed Altmaier | 52c | 15,000$7,784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,215.69 | 101 | 59.4%60 W · 41 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x95b8…47c9backed Tiafoe | 51c | 4,896$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 284 | 43%122 W · 162 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Altmaier | 48c | 4,020$1,935 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,084.4 | 4,082 | 39.7%1,622 W · 2,460 L | +93.1wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Tiafoe | 50c | 1,795$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.4 | 1,723 | 50.1%863 W · 860 L | +29.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Altmaier | 50c | 1,200$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$600 | 499 | 42.3%211 W · 288 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Altmaier | 50c | 1,149$574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$574.42 | 428 | 41.6%178 W · 250 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Altmaier | 46c | 990.49$459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.75 | 9,374 | 44.3%4,154 W · 5,220 L | -244.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Tiafoe | 49c | 977.8$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$478.29 | 1,515 | 37.7%571 W · 944 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Tiafoe | 53c | 944.14$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 459 | 57.5%264 W · 195 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3135…f6c3backed Tiafoe | 51c | 869.41$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$440.71 | 265 | 55.8%148 W · 117 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Altmaier | 50c | 800$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400 | 439 | 43.7%192 W · 247 L | +15.9wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2903…9203backed Tiafoe | 50c | 420$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 1,091 | 60.2%657 W · 434 L | +22.4wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Tiafoe | 50c | 409.76$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.88 | 1,018 | 46.8%476 W · 542 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ef…9a2cbacked Tiafoe | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 826 | 57.1%472 W · 354 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe741…a9d1backed Tiafoe | 53c | 371.53$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 259 | 48.6%126 W · 133 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb421…8856backed Tiafoe | 50c | 276$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138 | 1,785 | 48.7%869 W · 916 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7547…d158backed Tiafoe | 49c | 228.47$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.95 | 7,107 | 39.7%2,820 W · 4,287 L | -17.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Tiafoe | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Tiafoe | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Tiafoe | 56c | 192.82$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.63 | 2,343 | 51.6%1,209 W · 1,134 L | +95.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7179…7d79backed Tiafoe | 50c | 140$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2,639 | 46.4%1,224 W · 1,415 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57b2…9da2backed Tiafoe | 48c | 102.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 401 | 35.7%143 W · 258 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3b…9035backed Tiafoe | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 313 | 55.3%173 W · 140 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Tiafoe | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 956 | 55.9%534 W · 422 L | +19.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf703…541abacked Altmaier | 61c | 84.46$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +4.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ad…34cebacked Tiafoe | 50c | 70$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 440 | 51.6%227 W · 213 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a5d…54dbbacked Altmaier | 46c | 61.34$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.08 | 2,433 | 50.8%1,236 W · 1,197 L | +81.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09e7…1fffbacked Tiafoe | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 33 | 60.6%20 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Altmaier | 48c | 55.77$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 2,204 | 36.9%813 W · 1,391 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Tiafoe | 52c | 55.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 325 | 48%156 W · 169 L | -11.5wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Altmaier | 49c | 48.51$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.74 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba8…90a3backed Altmaier | 53c | 47.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.45 | 492 | 52.4%258 W · 234 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba90…a450backed Altmaier | 51c | 43.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +5.5wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe368…e9edbacked Tiafoe | 49c | 41.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 374 | 36.4%136 W · 238 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Altmaier | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 1,008 | 43.8%442 W · 566 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…4cc3backed Tiafoe | 51c | 22.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x372f…182abacked Tiafoe | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set Handicap: Tiafoe (-1.5) vs Altmaier (+1.5)this page
- Daniel Altmaier vs. Frances Tiafoe: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set 1 Winner: Altmaier vs TiafoeTiafoe won
- Stuttgart Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Frances TiafoeFrances Tiafoe won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.