Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7215d373cfa5a7e52591d9c283fe9b999efd3428ef6bac2472358362b99ef362
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Ilbirs eSports, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,855
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,927
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,855 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Lynx | 68c | 3,871$2,633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,238.34 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 23c | 3,087$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Ilbirs eSports | 43c | 1,878$813 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$813 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Ilbirs eSports | 42c | 1,500$627 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$626.79 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 57c | 1,281$735 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.99 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Team Lynx | 59c | 1,100$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x637b…948bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 925.49$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232.1 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed Ilbirs eSports | 8c | 481$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.64 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 41c | 464.37$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.76 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Team Lynx | 64c | 384.1$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.28 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Lynx | 58c | 350$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Lynx | 75c | 319.15$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.02 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce7a…fef0backed Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 277.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 191 | 45.5%87 W · 104 L | +13.9wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa5…a51abacked Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 250$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 54.1%198 W · 168 L | -4.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 71c | 199$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.79 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 27c | 180.38$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Team Lynx | 67c | 154$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.15 | 1,066 | 57%608 W · 458 L | +52.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Ilbirs eSports | 14c | 138.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 79c | 129.85$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.38 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc8f…d0e4backed Team Lynx | 29c | 111.9$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.45 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 20cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Lynx | 71c | 105$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.17 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ilbirs eSports | 16c | 102.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.46 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Team Lynx | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Team Lynx | 67c | 90.08$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.32 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…3e49backed Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 68$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 653 | 37.2%243 W · 410 L | -15.1wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcc9…e4afbacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 55.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Team Lynx | 63c | 55$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.35 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a35…6fe0backed Team Lynx | 54c | 51.58$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +5.0wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e7…c067backed Team Lynx | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90d4…2deebacked Team Lynx | 31c | 41.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.37 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8ca…cccbbacked Team Lynx | 28c | 38.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +6.2wins | +0.26per pick | 37cpaid | +171.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Ilbirs eSports | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Team Lynx | 56c | 31.82$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.86 | 161 | 47.2%76 W · 85 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 30.81$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 279 | 52.3%146 W · 133 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Team Lynx | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ce5…a07fbacked Team Lynx | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +3.6wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Team Lynx | 78c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.08 | 88 | 68.2%60 W · 28 L | +7.0wins | +0.08per pick | 60cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group BTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.