Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8aa5106d77761964eb681fee4e8fcaa0cfdfe9a9f5aded54dd2aaca409062ee
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Ilbirs eSports, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,553
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,435
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,553 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Lynx | 63c | 2,559$1,607 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$951.53 | 1,202 | 59.3%713 W · 489 L | +64.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 2,017$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.66 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e44…21bcbacked Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 1,080$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.76 | 798 | 59%471 W · 327 L | +16.1wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 763.43$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.86 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Team Lynx | 69c | 567.95$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.06 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48ba…d81dbacked Ilbirs eSports | 14c | 560.12$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.36 | 563 | 43.9%247 W · 316 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 512.26$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.3 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Team Lynx | 70c | 353.13$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.33 | 457 | 50.8%232 W · 225 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Team Lynx | 67c | 350$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.5 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 213$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.42 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Lynx | 74c | 169.23$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d3…698bbacked Team Lynx | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 480 | 53.1%255 W · 225 L | +25.4wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8342…6dc8backed Team Lynx | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.29 | 480 | 54%259 W · 221 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Team Lynx | 67c | 127$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.91 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd960…1adebacked Ilbirs eSports | 13c | 119.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Ilbirs eSports | 34c | 109.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.64 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 103.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Team Lynx | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 36c | 99.25$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.73 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed Team Lynx | 66c | 80$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.2 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 74$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Ilbirs eSports | 31c | 62.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.77 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx | 79c | 22.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group BTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.