Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf384857655764533ed21163a54c2cd2c70f28fbaaf38466500d93bf36d53aa4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Lynxof Ilbirs eSports, Team Lynx
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,336
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec8a…21b7backed Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 1,552$546 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$546.29 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ce…bf90backed Team Lynx | 65c | 900$585 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 185 | 50.8%94 W · 91 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Ilbirs eSports | 7c | 804.71$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.89 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5984…76ebbacked Ilbirs eSports | 37c | 675$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.65 | 208 | 27.9%58 W · 150 L | -11.2wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5839…3fa8backed Team Lynx | 67c | 500.11$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.11 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Lynx | 71c | 500$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Ilbirs eSports | 29c | 338.83$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.26 | 1,577 | 43.9%692 W · 885 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Team Lynx | 65c | 320$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.92 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Ilbirs eSports | 13c | 300$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 76 | 39.5%30 W · 46 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab96…989fbacked Team Lynx | 63c | 265.14$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.86 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | -8.2wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Ilbirs eSports | 17c | 249.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…aa3cbacked Team Lynx | 63c | 206.35$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Ilbirs eSports | 14c | 192.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.79 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a9c…535ebacked Ilbirs eSports | 22c | 185.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.26 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb590…63aabacked Ilbirs eSports | 8c | 167.2$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Team Lynx | 63c | 140.83$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.71 | 198 | 57.1%113 W · 85 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Ilbirs eSports | 25c | 132.5$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.53 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Ilbirs eSports | 11c | 126$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f4…59eabacked Ilbirs eSports | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +47.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Team Lynx | 63c | 88.94$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.91 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb2f…fc51backed Ilbirs eSports | 38c | 79.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Ilbirs eSports | 35c | 55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 253 | 48.6%123 W · 130 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5101…4a4fbacked Team Lynx | 63c | 40$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +3.7wins | +0.20per pick | 57cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Team Lynx | 78c | 23.86$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b9…7a6bbacked Team Lynx | 64c | 20.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 1 WinnerTeam Lynx won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Team Lynx - Game 2 WinnerTeam Lynx won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.