Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x722a9bf7e2c6d9f9063872903d89d67779456ccc71a579991a0e8c90bfa986d1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,678
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,884
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,678 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 15c | 463.84$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.7 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 42c | 299.58$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.19 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 17c | 250.08$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.07 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 15c | 213.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.55 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 20c | 168.8$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.23 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 21c | 168.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.64 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 15c | 150$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.83 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 11c | 139.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 17c | 138.28$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 19c | 85.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 80c | 81.22$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked Yes | 15c | 80.48$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.07 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 20c | 76.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 17c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 79c | 71$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.91 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 70.84$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.75 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 66c | 65.17$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 79c | 48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 49c | 39.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc697…412bbacked No | 79c | 34$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 71c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 70c | 30.85$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 80c | 27.78$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc997…44f1backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 80c | 25.27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.05 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 67c | 25.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xee02…ce88backed No | 57c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 107 | 64.5%69 W · 38 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 62c | 18.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 75c | 13.79$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.