Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e73829368e39b3ad231b1d119370c2d76c0e24a8910e3053c663ea727dcbabb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,520
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,394
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,520 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5500…b4f6backed Yes | 29c | 931.85$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.62 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4323…f818backed Yes | 2c | 697.07$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 53 | 13.2%7 W · 46 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -57%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 26c | 390.3$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.29 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 14c | 330.76$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.7 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 78c | 323.45$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.54 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 75c | 177.9$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.84 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 20c | 177$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked Yes | 18c | 160.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 79c | 141.52$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 74c | 101.34$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.94 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 25c | 100.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 25c | 89.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 77c | 75.89$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 25c | 75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 76c | 70$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.79 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 27c | 64.6$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.17 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 62.68$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 76c | 60.9$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.52 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 26c | 54.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x445f…cc13backed Yes | 36c | 49.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +3.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 72c | 43.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 72c | 40.63$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc05…9a76backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 284 | 55.6%158 W · 126 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 71c | 37$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 75c | 36.98$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.29 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 72c | 25.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.97 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 25.17$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.3 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8953…e093backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 66cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 70c | 19.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.99 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4606…7f19backed No | 77c | 19.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed No | 78c | 18.81$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea83…7393backed No | 73c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.37 | 1,445 | 60.1%868 W · 577 L | +5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 78c | 15.51$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.