Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca374cf6d54d29334a9c83416a3ee2597b9713acc2076e7671bbd29320cac18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,984
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,463
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,984 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 29c | 1,732$504 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,227.7 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 45c | 641.5$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$351.49 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 71c | 500$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355 | 971 | 52.2%507 W · 464 L | -8.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 71c | 350$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.5 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 320$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.2 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 57c | 319.35$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$182.03 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 247.29$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.51 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 48c | 219.72$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.41 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x103e…78b5backed Yes | 58c | 207.04$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.04 | 161 | 34.2%55 W · 106 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ef…b0f2backed No | 11c | 179.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 168 | 32.7%55 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d84…03adbacked Yes | 47c | 149.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.67 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 36cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 66c | 146$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.72 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 138.28$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 69c | 131.53$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.42 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…2b25backed No | 46c | 130.28$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 329 | 58.7%193 W · 136 L | +17.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xae45…0359backed Yes | 45c | 128.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.54 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0b1…6754backed Yes | 77c | 124.23$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.1 | 354 | 65%230 W · 124 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 71c | 115$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.65 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 22c | 106.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.2 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 48c | 105.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.42 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6cf…66c3backed No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 1,082 | 65.6%710 W · 372 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 23c | 98.25$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.73 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 28c | 96$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.64 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 18c | 80.51$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 17c | 75.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 45c | 75$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ec…710abacked No | 68c | 73.52$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 135 | 45.9%62 W · 73 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 70.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 50c | 70$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 46c | 66.41$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.86 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 75c | 60$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 42c | 59.69$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.62 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed No | 51c | 58.31$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed Yes | 48c | 55.69$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.24 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 45c | 55.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.73 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 50c | 55.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x077c…8b1fbacked No | 30c | 52.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 538 | 55%296 W · 242 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 22c | 51.78$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 161 | 48.4%78 W · 83 L | -6.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 45.38$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.24 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 44c | 43.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked No | 72c | 41.91$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.31 | 648 | 59.1%383 W · 265 L | -21.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 75c | 40.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…87d3backed Yes | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.27 | 303 | 32.3%98 W · 205 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 44c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d14…c13abacked Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 112 | 22.3%25 W · 87 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 50c | 39.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 50c | 37.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fe5…91aabacked No | 36c | 37.56$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -6.5wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 49c | 36.7$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.76 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10d7…6f7bbacked No | 37c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa33d…3ef2backed No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 456 | 75.2%343 W · 113 L | +27.6wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +13%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 76c | 32.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.74 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 66c | 29.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.15 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 43c | 29.32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.81 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc196…4af6backed Yes | 41c | 27.94$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 270 | 56.7%153 W · 117 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 47c | 27.24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.44 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 52c | 25.27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 53c | 24.61$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 53c | 24.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f37…1952backed No | 61c | 24.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 61c | 24.08$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.69 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed Yes | 47c | 22.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.06 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x023c…99a0backed Yes | 80c | 22.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…68d3backed No | 55c | 21.8$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -5.5wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 239 | 58.2%139 W · 100 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86ae…29fdbacked Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e17…5ff5backed No | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 64cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 66c | 15.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on June 28?this page
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on June 28?No won
- Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on June 28?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.