NBA · resolved market
Will the Pacers beat the Bucks 4-1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x723190638de57550a3a5c29659d5cd0ab34655054041e6659dbaa10850132cc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $118,937
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $118,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $118,937 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc41…3873backed No | 73c | 50,927$37,177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37,176.71 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89da…dfcabacked Yes | 27c | 50,927$13,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37,176.71 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +270.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4344…caefbacked Yes | 73c | 5,169$3,771 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,398.42 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 52c | 3,268$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.01 | 165 | 37%61 W · 104 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 26c | 2,222$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.72 | 447 | 40.7%182 W · 265 L | -27.5wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86a4…9adabacked Yes | 75c | 1,839$1,373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.38 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c03…0cc1backed No | 27c | 1,557$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$421.51 | 1,602 | 11.8%189 W · 1,413 L | -4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ef…4d3cbacked Yes | 76c | 1,243$945 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 18c | 1,000$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$820 | 701 | 47.8%335 W · 366 L | +15.4wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 28c | 848.58$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.6 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes | 21c | 648.45$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.05 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 73c | 600$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.14per pick | 58cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd621…bc07backed Yes | 74c | 570$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.2 | 95 | 55.8%53 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ce…0772backed Yes | 23c | 500$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Yes | 22c | 450$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$349.5 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Yes | 27c | 298.97$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.25 | 185 | 36.8%68 W · 117 L | -11.1wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d0…2ce3backed Yes | 76c | 249.28$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339a…1eaebacked Yes | 24c | 200$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152 | 1,759 | 61.7%1,085 W · 674 L | +127.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00a6…9343backed Yes | 23c | 200$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +2.4wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0723…b05abacked Yes | 76c | 181.29$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc4…707cbacked Yes | 77c | 131.21$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1642…5988backed Yes | 50c | 105$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 368 | 43.8%161 W · 207 L | -17.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecd…a578backed Yes | 19c | 95.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.63 | 231 | 35.1%81 W · 150 L | -11.1wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 76c | 75.22$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.05 | 1,554 | 37.3%579 W · 975 L | -48.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eac…8469backed Yes | 76c | 43.36$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc35…3d85backed Yes | 76c | 41.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 78cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad81…ea8ebacked Yes | 76c | 40.7$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.77 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86b7…e618backed Yes | 76c | 40.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8083…1a21backed Yes | 77c | 36.6$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3d…bc8bbacked Yes | 77c | 32.39$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 76cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4598…3057backed No | 74c | 31.81$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.54 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb680…b6a2backed Yes | 77c | 30.22$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba3e…0d8cbacked Yes | 76c | 29.2$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dab…c5ccbacked Yes | 76c | 28.79$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca47…e4f4backed Yes | 77c | 28.08$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ef…507abacked Yes | 77c | 28.03$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 75cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf73…e717backed Yes | 76c | 27.7$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e6…978ebacked Yes | 77c | 27.62$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b1…5f2fbacked Yes | 77c | 27.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 77cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…f181backed Yes | 76c | 27.11$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf97…bcc8backed Yes | 76c | 27.09$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x190b…f1b4backed Yes | 76c | 26.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…9bdbbacked Yes | 76c | 26.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x980c…4eeebacked Yes | 77c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.07 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb31…dccdbacked Yes | 76c | 26.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x749b…c0a0backed Yes | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…4117backed Yes | 76c | 26.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a2…7a6cbacked Yes | 77c | 25.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4bc3…8ae7backed Yes | 77c | 25.17$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8278…ab24backed Yes | 77c | 24.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b2c…5619backed Yes | 76c | 24.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28e0…ef82backed Yes | 76c | 24.36$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…0ce0backed Yes | 76c | 23.59$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.66 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4b…e176backed No | 74c | 21.61$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.39per pick | 59cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb78…b84ebacked Yes | 76c | 21.46$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 76cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3975…46edbacked Yes | 76c | 20.88$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 68cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa118…1a57backed No | 74c | 19.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.49 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.0wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c7…ac9fbacked Yes | 77c | 19.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -52%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…5b70backed No | 74c | 15.96$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa162…090bbacked No | 74c | 13.93$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.43per pick | 68cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the Pacers beat the Bucks 4-1?this page
- Will the Bucks beat the Pacers 4-2?No won
- Will the Bucks beat the Pacers 4-3?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Bucks 4-0?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Bucks 4-2?No won
- Will the Pacers beat the Bucks 4-3?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.