NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Flames: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x725c99c50b129c319d5e50bdc249f31eff43151f2e3b3ea0252ede09b09e3bf2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,885
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,885 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 57c | 6,000$3,420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,420 | 210 | 36.2%76 W · 134 L | -14.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8013…5b52backed Under | 43c | 4,391$1,888 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,502.74 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 47c | 1,440$676 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$763.81 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 1,103$585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$584.61 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Over | 48c | 1,082$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 852 | 50.2%428 W · 424 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Under | 43c | 700$301 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$399 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 58c | 509.49$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.44 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…4f9cbacked Under | 43c | 465.12$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.12 | 160 | 56.3%90 W · 70 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef2e…8d89backed Under | 43c | 348.84$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.84 | 196 | 51.5%101 W · 95 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 74c | 291.88$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…5701backed Under | 57c | 253.59$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.81 | 210 | 40.5%85 W · 125 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e64…66f1backed Over | 11c | 182.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e2c…787cbacked Under | 47c | 180$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.4 | 124 | 45.2%56 W · 68 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 57c | 151.23$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.56 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 55c | 127.27$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x44f0…432cbacked Over | 43c | 100.58$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 125 | 48.8%61 W · 64 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 84.8$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3187…896dbacked Over | 46c | 61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 561 | 52%292 W · 269 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 48c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 780 | 38.5%300 W · 480 L | +23.5wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc151…99e5backed Under | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 432 | 50.9%220 W · 212 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 53c | 38.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.17 | 451 | 51.2%231 W · 220 L | +16.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x886b…73d1backed Over | 55c | 36.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 61cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6630…703cbacked Over | 55c | 29.45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Under | 46c | 29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.67 | 1,948 | 49.4%962 W · 986 L | +24.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 56c | 26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,028 | 53.2%547 W · 481 L | +21.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Over | 54c | 25.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.86 | 550 | 48.2%265 W · 285 L | -11.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3945…7077backed Over | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 83 | 55.4%46 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 45c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.75 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Under | 46c | 23.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 1,530 | 51.7%791 W · 739 L | +22.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47ba…a503backed Under | 43c | 23.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Under | 79c | 21.27$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Flames: O/U 5.5this page
- Devils vs. FlamesDevils won
- Devils vs. Flames: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Flames won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.