Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7269b5bf16fb2e8e6a50b26c22aa5f4183b8faed3a577bf227fd4c732641c279
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,695
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,695 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x100a…c6cebacked No | 1c | 3,000$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 255 | 4.3%11 W · 244 L | +8.3wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +221.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed No | 28c | 389.8$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.09 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 77c | 232.64$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.38 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 44c | 193.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.77 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 79c | 178.73$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.74 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96fd…2574backed Yes | 42c | 165.15$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.75 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 164.42$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.72 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 13c | 157.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 17c | 147.45$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.45 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 73c | 94.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.96 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 14c | 76.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.39 | 244 | 14.3%35 W · 209 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaebd…c462backed Yes | 24c | 72.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.12 | 82 | 20.7%17 W · 65 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 73c | 69$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.38 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953a…6646backed Yes | 30c | 67.23$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.23 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 65c | 66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.4 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 70c | 63.07$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.21 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 63c | 54.2$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.06 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 37c | 54.19$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.19 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 29c | 52.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.37 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf20b…4566backed Yes | 39c | 51.02$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +49.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 59c | 49.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.6 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked No | 77c | 39.64$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.65 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 50c | 39.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 77c | 38.52$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.66 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 58c | 34.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9f5f…2ec8backed Yes | 43c | 32.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 61c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 78c | 21.59$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.75 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedb…5e54backed No | 64c | 18.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 183 | 51.4%94 W · 89 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 14°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 16°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C or higher on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.