Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x72906595e4520df841884d341991c234056ada296138b315d09f9d7aa4e7bed5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,575
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,373
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,575 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 49c | 445.89$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.66 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 12c | 364.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x80c0…c4f6backed Yes | 55c | 363.05$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.05 | 195 | 59.5%116 W · 79 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 47c | 264.55$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes | 49c | 210.53$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.57 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 61c | 159.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.74 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed No | 53c | 145.45$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.94 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 52c | 135.37$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5695…60e9backed Yes | 46c | 106.38$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 48c | 104.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.98 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15e9…dacdbacked Yes | 45c | 101.15$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.86 | 299 | 48.2%144 W · 155 L | +28.2wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 51c | 86.52$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.95 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 45c | 72.1$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 60c | 65$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 44c | 57.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x14a0…d8e3backed Yes | 46c | 53.62$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec3…d814backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e20…dddcbacked Yes | 55c | 44.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.08 | 285 | 46.3%132 W · 153 L | -17.3wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 54c | 36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 51c | 35.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 54c | 34.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 57c | 34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 33.2$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.55 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbe2…f54abacked Yes | 63c | 31.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 107 | 44.9%48 W · 59 L | -7.9wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 49c | 30.64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1bbd…3bedbacked No | 55c | 28.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 375 | 41.6%156 W · 219 L | -52.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -28%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 49c | 28.64$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.91 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 44c | 28.56$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 61c | 28.16$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 56c | 25.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 52c | 25.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 62c | 24.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 404 | 61.4%248 W · 156 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 52c | 24$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfdeb…0b98backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0082…c023backed No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 13?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 13?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 98-99°F on August 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.