CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Bebop (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stage
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7292af90e004cf85e7ac71366e2a9ad28e955e64b907bcb056f1b4e6b49de7d4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Black Phoenixof Black Phoenix, Bebop
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,998
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,059
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,998 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x30c7…ac3bbacked Bebop | 32c | 4,160$1,331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,331.16 | 756 | 52.6%398 W · 358 L | +27.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf03c…add8backed Black Phoenix | 68c | 3,624$2,459 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.63 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5135…7217backed Black Phoenix | 69c | 2,515$1,745 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.63 | 1,620 | 52.7%853 W · 767 L | +57.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1614…0bedbacked Black Phoenix | 70c | 620.16$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.95 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -9.0wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfe9b…cbe5backed Bebop | 30c | 583.41$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.02 | 442 | 44.1%195 W · 247 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4be7…8e91backed Bebop | 31c | 511$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.41 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 47cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3a…9e14backed Black Phoenix | 68c | 499.99$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd14…2267backed Bebop | 38c | 492.06$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.89 | 5,830 | 37.8%2,203 W · 3,627 L | +79.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0e3…c760backed Bebop | 30c | 366.67$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 79 | 35.4%28 W · 51 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed28…87cebacked Bebop | 30c | 317$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.1 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f41…260ebacked Black Phoenix | 69c | 300$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93 | 165 | 50.3%83 W · 82 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Black Phoenix | 67c | 262$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.53 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Black Phoenix | 76c | 242.97$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.9 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe04…1481backed Bebop | 31c | 225.81$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 41%43 W · 62 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd677…7579backed Bebop | 30c | 223.93$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.87 | 50 | 46%23 W · 27 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…b792backed Bebop | 31c | 223.14$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.17 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x810a…3d59backed Bebop | 28c | 181.02$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.22per pick | 33cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…5857backed Bebop | 30c | 179$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 194 | 47.4%92 W · 102 L | -2.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd055…28d0backed Bebop | 30c | 176.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.85 | 655 | 46.9%307 W · 348 L | +18.4wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Bebop | 15c | 161.05$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 67 | 47.8%32 W · 35 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd957…acd3backed Bebop | 31c | 154.26$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Bebop | 15c | 145.89$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 199 | 53.8%107 W · 92 L | +10.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x571c…b9f9backed Black Phoenix | 70c | 135.36$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -4.1wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -8%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5c6d…ab76backed Black Phoenix | 69c | 116$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.02 | 338 | 49.7%168 W · 170 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa005…abb1backed Black Phoenix | 69c | 105.11$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 168 | 47.6%80 W · 88 L | -9.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86dd…1af2backed Bebop | 33c | 102.88$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.0wins | -0.16per pick | 54cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x97f2…d56fbacked Black Phoenix | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 36 | 66.7%24 W · 12 L | +4.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +29.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d40…dd57backed Bebop | 30c | 96.37$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 123 | 40.7%50 W · 73 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Bebop | 30c | 96$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.04 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…cecdbacked Bebop | 30c | 93.33$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c55…8dedbacked Black Phoenix | 71c | 89.76$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 103 | 46.6%48 W · 55 L | -10.4wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x99fe…b61cbacked Bebop | 31c | 85.18$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 482 | 42.1%203 W · 279 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1273…8eddbacked Bebop | 35c | 84.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.88 | 209 | 57.4%120 W · 89 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Bebop | 33c | 80$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.4 | 185 | 36.2%67 W · 118 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Black Phoenix | 63c | 77$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.6 | 2,508 | 41%1,029 W · 1,479 L | -115.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Black Phoenix | 63c | 72$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,136 | 42.9%916 W · 1,220 L | -68.1wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a7e…9dc6backed Bebop | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.62 | 207 | 55.1%114 W · 93 L | +11.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed Black Phoenix | 65c | 69.99$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.73 | 143 | 44.1%63 W · 80 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Black Phoenix | 73c | 68.48$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 4,064 | 50.9%2,067 W · 1,997 L | +69.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69d2…a218backed Bebop | 36c | 67.56$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc95e…102abacked Bebop | 31c | 63.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 87 | 55.2%48 W · 39 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1612…9dedbacked Black Phoenix | 70c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 255 | 51.8%132 W · 123 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca5…80f5backed Bebop | 31c | 58.73$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.34 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -4.1wins | -0.20per pick | 60cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6083…aa55backed Bebop | 30c | 50.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -3.3wins | -0.15per pick | 42cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…7c12backed Black Phoenix | 67c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.81 | 523 | 69.4%363 W · 160 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Black Phoenix | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 1,068 | 55%587 W · 481 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Bebop | 24c | 47.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…2d81backed Bebop | 36c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 457 | 48.1%220 W · 237 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bf1…fbdabacked Bebop | 29c | 42.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3881…804ebacked Bebop | 34c | 33.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,496 | 51.5%771 W · 725 L | -7.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked Bebop | 33c | 29.86$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 238 | 35.3%84 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb627…d968backed Bebop | 35c | 28.48$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.11 | 186 | 63.4%118 W · 68 L | +14.7wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb47…4737backed Black Phoenix | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 121 | 76%92 W · 29 L | +10.5wins | +0.09per pick | 67cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x395a…eb72backed Black Phoenix | 71c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 75 | 72%54 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.05per pick | 67cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Bebop (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Group Stagethis page
- Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Bebop - Map 1 WinnerBlack Phoenix won
- Counter-Strike: Black Phoenix vs Bebop - Map 2 WinnerBlack Phoenix won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.