TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Will Alex De Minaur win the 2025 ATP Toronto tournament?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,358
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$19,879

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,358 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes0c12,132$12 inLost-$12.132,3317.9%183 W · 2,148 L-56.9wins-0.02per pick10cpaid-60.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Yes17c2,500$429 inLost-$428.7816140.4%65 W · 96 L+0.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed No79c514.29$406 inWon+$10818740.6%76 W · 111 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+2.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e77…cb47backed No78c424$331 inWon+$93.281060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid-1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb478…ac0abacked Yes23c377.39$85 inLost-$8536047.2%170 W · 190 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-1.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcf…e582backed Yes22c316$69 inLost-$69.51040%4 W · 6 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick57cpaid-45.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9e5c…d8e6backed No78c206.67$161 inWon+$45.491,09035.9%391 W · 699 L+16.2wins+0.01per pick34cpaid-6.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefd4…0895backed Yes21c200$42 inLost-$42425%1 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+66.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a5c…8b88backed No79c170$134 inWon+$35.7771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.18per pick53cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x168a…da29backed No80c167.68$134 inWon+$33.548854.5%48 W · 40 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x825e…904fbacked No80c128.12$102 inWon+$26.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid-18.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f5a…725ebacked Yes16c62.5$10 inLost-$102176.2%16 W · 5 L+3.6wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+31.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x4c54…cc1ebacked No79c30$24 inWon+$6.31752.9%9 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.10per pick63cpaid+16.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.